Congrats Peter for sticking with your plan and also for having finally finding a way to hang in and profit on a trend day. As far as Early Trader goes might be best to scrap it I consider the first and last hour 1/2 as much to difficult to trade although I have not given up those times totaly myself yet, but for now just expirementing with the simulator. bobdec
Yes Bob, I was thinking this evening about why Early Trader is so bad. The answer: his entries are based more on what I think is going to happen, unlike Trend Trader and Reversal Trader, whose entries depend on the market first acting a certain way. So I think the key to fixing Early Trader will be to narrow his scope and get him some key signals to look for. On the other hand I might just send him the way of the buffalo. The other two seem to do a fine job and complement each other.
I have enough trades from the week to crunch numbers on all three Traders. In the meantime I've developed a fourth trader: Reject Trader. He waits for a trading range to develop, and stands by to enter on any failed breakouts. Here is a picture of a couple of nice entries from today.
Looks intresting at least for todays market. I hopr you are going to test it some more before risking any money on something yjat may be a one or two day wonder. I did not trade today had other commitments what are the blue lines on the chart pivots based on yes close? bobdec
Hello Peter: I was just reading some of the recent posts in your thread. I am interested in your way of categorizing the various styles. I wonder why you don't just use them all. For example, if your early trader finds a great entry and jumps on then you take it as far as it goes. If you have to exit, you simply look at the way price is acting and choose the type of trader that suits the conditions. Sort of like being a basketball coach. If you need a defensive player you choose one off your bench and send him in. If you need a three point shooter with seconds left in the game, you choose one off your bench and send him in. Take Care, Steve46
At this time I am paper trading them in real time. We'll see who makes the "team". I agree, it would be ideal to have 2-3 complementary styles to trade. Especially for someone like me, who has had problems in the past not being patient for entries. At least with a few styles to choose from, I can pick the least crappiest entry.
Well, none of the original three styles (Early, Reversal, Trend) has entries better than random so far. It's still too early to tell with Reject Trader. Hmmm, looks like I have to stick to paper trading this week.
I realized in the case of Trend Trader I was cutting of the MFE per trade at 2x risk, because I did not want "outlyers" to deceive me. However, in terms of profits, those outlyers are where you make your money with this style. Thus, Trend Trader appears to be a viable style, provided I let the strong ones run over 6 NQ points, which is pretty reasonable. I also realized I am measuring my entry effectiveness with an uncalibrated tool- the BS Ratio. Uncalibrated, because I don't know what it should read for a seasoned, profitable NQ trader, which I am not. I hope one of you can: Take 20 of your entries (consecutively) Sum up the total risk (initial stop) Sum up the MFE Divide and post what you get
Had two nice entries for Reject Trader today, shown on the chart. I also noted the ES did not break out below the low, as NQ did, before it was rejected.