MDR = multi day resistance /S = support Pre-R = premarket resistance /S = support Daily and 3 hr boxes are for major features/comments/observations from the respective charts These are used to rules out trades in the columns on the right hand side e.g. today I have longs in C,B,and A negated (won't take em) b/c looks like a sucker move if this decending triangle proves itself, also longs in Z negated b/c the would be just under the major s/r level around 1452. etc. etc. I have everything planned out for tommorow. In this way I have already limited my trades to jive with longer term happenings and s/r, before the day even begins.
Also, I know it's electronicly tracked etc, but I have a space for trades on the sheet, to keep an eye on how things are going, right in front of me. Hopefully I won't see things like: (1) short resistance, stopped for loss (2) short resistance, stopped for loss (3) short resistance, stopped for loss by number (3) I should figure out i'm being stupid. Also note, there are only five spaces.
It only took me till 9:49 CST to burn up my 5 trades. Now I have plenty of time to figure out what I did. Entry quality ========= Total MFE/3 pt risk: 12.5 risk: 5x3 = 15 pts BS ratio : 0.83 (bleech, worse than random) (BTW in order not to skew the results the max MFE one trade can earn is 2x risk, for the calculation.) Well, what do I expect for 5 trades in a little over an hour. *Be more selective* MFE/5 pt risk: we'll see, last one is still churning Exit quality ======== 3pt risk -15 <---(-9.5)-------- 0 --------> +10.5 Crappy performance here too. (1) On my best short entry of the day I stopped it for a point gain. Looking back there were not even any green bars on the 10 chart. Initial phase method (IPM) *violated*. (2) A wise move would be to target S2 esp. since it corresponds to MDS (multi day support). i.e. exit at any stall there, which there was. Perhaps even a limit order exit, tho I hate to limit profits, it would have worked well today. Slightly more agressive than a limit is to exit @market if it backs off from the s/r for more than a couple of minutes, or even at all. This would allow for both a steam train plowing through the s/r line and also a small "trader pullback" Summary ======= (1) Even with the crappy entries, IPM would have got me to breakeven... I've got to return to the IPM, that's what got me my success in the first place. (2) Since i've gone down to 1 ctc seems like I'm hesitating to take the small wins, and it's costing me.
Was chatting with a guy, who knows a guy, who makes his own beer. He said his friend's beer is many times very bad, but every once in a while he creates something really great. After that, he writes down the recipe, marks it "good recipe", and goes on experimenting with new recipes, again mostly making bad beer. The guy said, "Hey, that annoys me about him. Hell if I finally found a good recipe for beer I'd just keep making that beer!"
anticipation <-------- AMBUSH ---------> chase The middle is where I want to be. Impatience swings me over to the left, fear of loss and frustration swing me over to the right.
"Reading the tape" in ES especially is worth 3 handles a day. But you gotta know what to look for. nitro
I did it right today-- ambush all the way-- REAL ambush, not anticipation, or chase. It made all the difference. I was wrong four times, and right once. But get this: the four times I was wrong, the results were +1, +2, -0.5, and +2. The one time I was right, the result was +8. Not a bad day, even with my 1 lot. Imagine you are hiding, waiting to hit someone with a baseball bat. You have to hide so he can't see you, but then you can't see him. If you get afraid that you might miss him, you might take a peek and bang, he sees you and the gig is up. Or, you may become so impatient you just get up and swing the bat, and hit some poor old lady who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. On the other hand if you are too much afraid of hitting the old lady you might stay hidden until the guy appears, maybe too long-- by the time you figure out it's the guy, he's too far away. So you've got to know what your looking for. Perhaps what kind of shoes he usually wears. As soon as you see that shoe step out... WHACK! Of course, you might hit some poor guy who just happened to be wearing those shoes, but oh well, it's a risky business.
Quote from nitro "Reading the tape" in ES especially is worth 3 handles a day. But you gotta know what to look for. Can you offer any tips for reading the tape or good reference materials?