I'm going to find out things like: if we trade through R1 during the day, what are the chances of hitting R2? etc. etc. Good day today, wiping out losses from the last two days and then some. Currently holding a long from 1498, looking for R2, stop at 98.5, already closed half at R1.
Re: holding overnight: If we close above R1, what are the chances that the next day closes higher? Above R2? (Ditto for the short side.) And what are the chances of violating the previous day's levels? Armed with this information I will be able to make objective decisions about holding overnight.
Still unhappy with the # of trades (8 today) but a decent profit anyhow. Once I arm myself with some more pivot point statistics I can filter out some of these trades.
Here's another one... If we hit R1, what are the chances of hitting S1 after that, on the same day? In the red this morning so far... not the best behavior on my part this morning... argh...
Guess, by symmetry*, not a good chance, but if it does... great chance for R2. And so it be. And thus I held. Wiped out the early morning stupidity and then some. Here's the latest trading cycle: (1) Trade well, mint some coin (2) Get stupid, give lots back (3) Rediscover the plan, go to step (1) Time to eliminate step #2! * already found for a bounce of S1, R1 unlikely but if it does reach R1, R2 very likely.
yo pete, you have too much time on your hands. If you get bored during the day, I highly recommend downloading smut from the internet.
Well for me, the winning prescription is geek out with analysis but not with trading. Trading: enter on pullbacks and failures, ambush turning points Trade Management: Get out if not proven right (small profit or loss) Analysis: use it to guide target picking and filter entries
[1]"Every trade a patient ambush" [2] Trades aligned with likely scenarios [3] Concentrate on hitting, not being hit I believe these were the last pieces of the puzzle for me. Had my best week ever.