To translate, this is the community saying "We don't think D Malloy/CT Democrats will do anything near what is necessary to control taxes, in light of the removal of state&local tax deductions from Fed taxes."
Considering this situation has existed far longer than the first indication that the proposed elimination of state and local deductions, probably not. It's a pure overbuild oversupply, in this case, but why let econ 101 get in the way of a good political rant.
Potentially that as well. I don't know anyone in the $10M and up real estate market that makes decisions on where to live based on property tax rates, that's for sure.
I would argue higher property taxes would result in higher property prices. The town in NJ I went to HS in had some of the highest property taxes in the state. It also had some of the highest (and most stable) real estate prices. All those taxes went to town services that people found desirable and to ensuring the schools were among the best in the state.
It's looking like the house and senate versions of the tax reform bill are in pretty close agreement and chances of passing in its present form are quite high. This will be painful for homes in high value/high tax communities where relatively average families pay $25k to $40k in yearly property taxes so that their kids can get supposedly elite educations. Because of the repeal of the income tax deduction, high earning people and businesses will flee the cesspools of NY/NJ/CT. That combined with the loss of property tax deduction will create a home price readjustment - I predict a pretty severe one.
"Flee" to where, Kansas? I've got news for you, one advantage of making a decent amount of money is that you can decide where you want to live based on any number of factors you find important, and tax rates generally aren't one of them. Hence the Kansas Experiment shockingly didn't lead to all the hedge fund managers "fleeing" the "cesspool" of NYC for the Nirvana that is Topeka. Hopefully you can reach that point in your life one day, it's quite liberating. Until then why don't you go short the Case Schiller futures for NYC, seems like free money given the strength of your views, no?
Not really. Most of these people are moving back to the city, where taxes are even higher. It’s a combination of people want to be in the happening places as they grow older, funds and banks moving back to Manhattan etc. I doubt anyone working in finance is really trying to time the real estate markets. Most of the time these losses or gains are pure luck. For instance, I bought my place on the UES in November 08 but my reason was unrelated to value - we simply got kicked out of a rental because our dog was too big.
The reason why Greenwich (and Connecticut in general) had all these rich people and huge mansions was because it used to have no state income tax. After you made your initial millions on Wall Street, you would move to Greenwich to set up/work at a hedge fund and make additional millions while paying no state income tax. Manhattan/Wall Street and Greenwich, CT are only 30-45 minutes driving distance. That all changed in 1991. That's the year the state income tax was introduced and the rates have been going up ever since. There is absolutely zero reason to want to buy a house in Greenwich these days. People are moving to Florida (no state income tax), which is what Peterffy did.