Peter Schiff

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Sam Mcgee, Jan 15, 2009.

  1. I just started to follow some of the things written and said by Peter Schiff. He's made some good predictions in the past. Now he's predicting a collapse of the American dollar. Does anyone have an opinion of what he says, good or bad? Do you think he's right by saying get out of any American investments?
  2. ess1096


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  3. I remember buying his Fathers book about 15 years ago. Although...that didn't seem to do him much good.

  4. Peter Schiff should own half the world right now, if he believed his own predictions. I wonder how his investments are doing.
  5. lrm21


    The problem with Schiff is he trying to trade Macro views.

    He has been right. and he will continue to be right. But seeing the big picture does not exactly translate into money at the micro level when you are talking about buying individual stocks

    Look at Warren Buffet, he sucks at making market calls but he is great at buying a companie at below its intrinsic value.

    I like watching Schiff, but I have yet to see him offer information that is tradeable or bankable.

    I agree with limiting your exposure to the U.S. dollar, even though this has been the wrong call for the past 8 months and he admits it, in the long run its probably the right call.

    He is short US. Bond, that is a tough trade, just look at Japan in the 90's, there bond rally lasted for almost 11 years. Its a long time to be short. Never bet against the FED.

    He is big on China, but it looks like China may be imploding, capital is flowing out not in. And if China devalues the Yuan, all his direct investments are going to get blown out. He is a big advocate of direct foreign stock purchases.

    His other call is to buy gold, but everyone is selling gold as the investment of 09.

    He was on a show the other day, and Mario Gabelli busted him on the fact that he will not name a stock or recommend something concrete. I agree he should be more transparent about his calls. He needs to start producing some trades, or he should stick to being a market analyst.

    Other than that he is entertaining as heck. he has a weekly podcast on his site. But I am not convinced about putting money with him.
  6. denton


    If China implodes, the US will resmble a black hole, which in turn will help everyone else to implode.

    2009 will see oil hit $15 and the S&P halve.

  7. Schiff is great - his calls on real estate well before the market collapse, in the face of cheerleaders and ridicule, are the tops...

    He missed the USD rally and still can't see the short term forest for the trees..but in the end, he will be vindicated, just so long as the hot money with him cools off a bit and realizes that markets have ups and downs...

    I threw a bit more cash with him in December, and will probably put more in around April/May when I think Dollar runs out of steam...
  8. Of course, and he has his own agenda with that. He is introducing clients to a prime broker (I believe Pershing) and charges people 1-3% of the trade volume to purchase stocks in foreign exchanges on each transaction.

    That's how he makes his money. Profiting from people's ignorance and lack of understanding. Not worse than anybody else on Wall St., but definitely not an innocent saint this guy.

    Why doesn't he go on TV and say "Buy emerging market ADRs or simply US/CAD commodity stocks in USD trading on US exchanges with your current retail discount broker such as Ameritrade, then short the USD against it to hedge your USD exposure with a retail forex broker such as Oanda?"

    Because his pathetic firm wouldn't make any money that way.
  9. Pekelo


    We had a thread on this, do a search. He invested/diversified abroad and since everything went down, his return was pretty much the same as the market's...
  10. harkm


    Give me a break. His firm is not a discount broker. He advocates buy and hold. How could his firm make money if the didn't charge commissions? Funny how some people don't feel that full service brokers should exist. I was a broker at a full service firm years ago and there are al lot of people who need help and feel more comfortable getting personal attention.

    I like Schiff because he has the balls to call it like he sees it and doesn't straddle the fence like most. (I do not have an account with Schiff)
    #10     Jan 16, 2009