did you pay a sponsorship to come onto ET and argue with everyone because you plan a gold bug site?????
It would be that gold has basically treaded water since then. Gold at $800 30 or so years ago, was a LOT more valuable than gold at its price today. Again over the long haul, gold is a terrible investment. It costs to store, pays no dividend, and basically USUALLY just spikes and goes down during times of crisis. Gold is a form of insurance, it is not much of an investment. And people flapping their wings and crowing about gold in the thousands, as they have been doing for decades, may wake up 1-2 years from now and find out gold has gone back down under $500.
Appears undervalued in relation to the amount of inflation since 1980 and the problems are very similar to 1980, except we were a creditor nation then. Now we are a deeply indebted nation which is going to start to bite soon. Also, economy came roaring out of 1983 with Volcker, Bernanke does not have creditor status to slam interest rates. Looks like curtains to me. Where the price of gold tops out is anyone's guess and it will go down one day, but hoping for 500.00 seems as foolish as 5000.00.
Your reasoning is just as good as mine at most. To you your reasons and to me mine. 1) Your world historical time frame is 30 years. 2) You mentioned Gold $800 in 1981 but did not mention Paul Volcker of Fed raised interest to 19.5% to slam down Gold. How do you analyse markets with US interest at 20% in 2010? 3) It is trivial whether Gold is a recognized form of "investment". As long as there is a great enough certainty buying Gold now at $1000 wins all other "great and real investments" for the next 10 years, then buy Gold. Don't worry about tomorrow - "And which of you by being anxious can add a single cubit to his life's span?". If you decide to buy the rally, then go ahead and don't worry overmuch. The final analysis is how Gold will fare in the next 10 years compared to putting money in stocks, saving deposits, bonds, etc. Don't tell me about George Soros. Just give an original analysis from first principle (just any) why putting money in Gold now will be the worst of investment decision.
Gold is not better nor worse than many other speculation vehicles. "Gold is a store of value" is the biggest fallacies of them all. Buying gold is a speculation that the price goes up, nothing more nothing less. There is no guarantee it will be a great "store of value", just like it didn't provide that type of guarantee for all periods in the past. I'm long GC and GDX since months and they haven't gone anywhere. I can't wait for a signal to short both on significant weakness.
You mean GG? Anyway, I agree but the same speculative aspects are in play for about almost any other asset class. As for the GDX staying flat, that has a lot to do with some of their main components being the largecap miners. Those largecaps have done fine and recovered from most of their 08 losses, up 2 to 300% from the lows, but still underperformed the smaller ones significantly. Risk reward.
GC is the Comex gold future. I'm trading that and the GDX Philly Gold Silver ETF. I understand there are dozens of individual gold stocks but I have been unable to build any quantitative edge on them. I tried, but couldn't find anything. Can't outsmart the gold bugs
Gold is a replacement currency for fiat currency with no liability attached. This is all about the dollar and its reserve currency status which appears to be in jeopardy. If gov't and people start accumulating as a hedge.......price will follow despite central bank opposition. If the dollar was in good shape, we would not even be discussing gold. Imho, all other arguments are a waste of time.