It's a mixed market. Even if this was year 2000, anyone avoiding IT didn't do all that badly. And for several fundamental reasons it's not going to be a full dot com like crash anyways. Throw in that we are definitely in a 2009-2014 like commodity bull ( stocks are still lagging the commodities they have a fair ways to go ). Banks are likely going to do well in 2022 which likely means at worst the stocks flat line and pay a nice dividend. What I see is corrections in certain areas of the market drag the good areas down, then they bounce when value buyers pile in. And the moves in energy are quite lucrative if you can stomach the downside ( or trade out/in effectively ). ps SPY was -7% in year 2000 and includes some IT exposure.
I could go on and on about problems with the Fed, lockdowns, bad incentives to keep people from working or overpay them, etc. But in the end the market and economy are two different things. Occasionally the reality of the economy brings the market back to reality....until more fake monetary and fiscal stimulus are applied. How long this cycle and house of cards can continue is anyone's guess, but every 10%+ correction always has lots of permabears saying "this time it's different"....and they're usually wrong. Uncle Fed and Aunt Stimulus come to the rescue.
This is an asset bubble that is popping and we have big time wage inflation. The fed will try to calm markets with their usual bs but they are stuck in a corner.
I agree it will last a while. reading your post and looking at what's been done so far.. it kinda looks like a shift toward socialism in the USA. And the market has been figuring this out. Plus, they may think they (central banks) need to invent a pretty big war...they may think this will help reset things...particularly the HUGE US debt. Losers of world wars get bailed out by the victors completely after the lessons of WWI.
By the way...when I said war and the outcome, I was speaking of what Joe may be trying to pull off. A socialist Joe Biden going to war with a quasi communist country and a red communist country whom are allies would suggest that he may be ushering their help in trying to sweep full socialism into USA. A war that he would not even try to win (an Incursion?), knowing that he is of the same mind set. This is what was trying to be prevented on Inauguration Day with the capital protest I suspect.
I think there is a major reality bubble on this list; people really need to get out more. Dishwasher's are being paid more because those kinds of jobs suck, and nobody wants to do them when they have better opportunities in other jobs. In my neck of the woods the teenagers who used to do dishwasher type jobs are now all working (and being paid more) at the local supermarket. That's partially because the older workers have thinned out due to retirement or not wanting to get exposed to Covid. It's also because a lot of people are having to move out of the area because of rent inflation. No low wage workers can afford to live in the area. This is all basic supply and demand. Workers have opportunities to make more and are taking them. Isn't that the American way?
Nonsense. If this were remotely true, how do countries like Norway, Switzerland, Denmark etc. manage to function? What's true is that people might need to start cleaning their own houses, tending their own gardens, and watching their own kids. God forbid that 6,000sqft houses will go out of fashion.
I think you are making a great point.....over the last 30 years there has been an explosion in square footage devoted retail and fast food.....how many of these places does the USA really need? I would argue that every single need is met, and then some in the USA.....some downsizing wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.