Polls at this point are fun to look at and over the adult beverage of your choosing to discuss and argue. However, as Tsing pointed out they don't mean much. My favorite predictive tool is the INTRADE markets. The market for the winning party currently shows a roughly even split. Seneca
Shoulda run a pool on how many times you'd have to post that before it sunk in. Anyway, I wonder how much of the fall is due not so much to the wacky positions these candidates are taking (well, wacky everywhere but here, where it's Tea Party-time all the time) as to the weird audience behavior. I didn't watch the 2nd one, but there was a story about them applauding when a question was asked what to do about someone dying because they didn't have health insurance, or something like that. Maybe it'll actually come down to the only two sane ones once the primaries really get going: Romney vs Huntsman(!), with Paul a strong third, and then the rest falling off. That would be unexpected, not least because Romney and Huntsman are both Mormons. Of course, Huntsman would have to get someone besides close friends, relatives, and the family dog to vote for him.
James Carville interrupts AK-47's reality-defying Quinnipac polling fantasy: "James Carville: Who Cares If People Like Dems More Than GOP If We Keep Losing Elections?" from a CNN exchanage: "Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher was also on hand, reacting to Carvilleâs advice by bringing up the reality that many Americans right now are not only unhappy with the Presidentâs performance, but with the state of Washington DC in general, including Congress. Carville responded: Everything that Cornell says is true, but thereâs one problem: We keep losing elections. And so what difference does it make if you say, âWell they like us better than they like the Republicans in Congress,â if they keep voting for Republicans"
Its the faggot going ad hom again. Any time he sees his beloved obama contrasted starkly against reality... he goes ad hom fag and pretends I was a birther.