I guess I must be literal. The scholars of the world, at one time, thought the world was flat, till they were proven incorrect. I put a statement forth at the beginning of this thread that a few individuals have made comments on but no one has offered any proof to the contrary . . . so my statement stands as fact till someone proves it wrong. I'm not saying I'm right, I looking for someone smart enough to try to prove me wrong . . . that hasn't happened yet. No proof has been offered . . . just verbiage. Anyone can run their mouth . . . even me. I'm willing to back up my opinions with fact so why can't my detractors?
ProfIllogic: >I'm willing to back up my opinions with fact >so why can't my detractors? They are YOUR assertions. You say you are "willing" to back your assertions up with fact AND YET YOU DON'T. It's really easy... start a thread, use your supposed knowledge to make the calls real time and you will receive the response you deserve (if not seek). The market is your "detractor". Prove it wrong by taking some documented money from it. JB PS: I won't be holding my breath.
Cycle/Astro analysis is at the root of Gann work. We know that there is geometric, numeric, and cyclical stucture to the market. The question is, how is that to be exploited for maximum gain? - Thank you for using your brain. I agree to structure only and only from a standpoint of a cycle as in cyclical oscillation. I'll explain the gain in a minute. Let's say we use a spiral Square of Nine to ascertain that a cycle is coming due. Let's also suppose that it is within two days of a Mars Trine cycle. How do we know that this is not also a point that the market decides to rescale, and the market chugs right on past your target to bottom at the next octave on the wheel? - The only part of a cycle that is consistently perfect is that it has a top and bottom. Cycles are like snowflakes . . . they are all snowflakes but are all configured differently. No two cycles are alike because each has a different ranges and lengths. So we have to concentrate on what is perfect and not what is the variable. I think that what some are doubting is that you can call the EXACT top or bottom. This cannot be done, can it? - No one can predict the exact top or bottom of a Market before it happens with any consistency. If anyone does do it, it is luck or coincidence. What I am saying is that I can confirm an EXACT Top or BOTTOM in the Market with something that occurs after EVERY top or bottom. Today in the E-Mini S&P was a perfect example. The Market confirmed a top @ 10:12 am EDT with a Support target @ 1114.75 (7.75 points away). The top was at 1123.25 and occured at 6:18 pm Sunday evening. Even though the confirmation came almost 16 hours later, would that have been a good short? Absolutely. The Market confirmed a bottom @ between 3:12 pm EDT & 3:24 pm EDT with a Resistance target @ 1123.75. Was that a good trade going into the close? I contend that the only thing you can really do is establish a cluster of dates using various cycles, correlate that with a cluster of prices using various methods of old tops and bottoms, or Gann Squares, or Fib grids, and attach a probability to that. Even so, there is no GUARANTEE that the market will turn at that point. The past can only APPROXIMATE the future, not predict it. - Not predict it . . . just give it a target. Remember that the market is cyclical. Once a bottom is established and confirmed, where will the market go up to? And once that following top is established and confirmed, where will the market fall back to? Do you see the consistency? The market travels along it's cyclical path either breaching or failing its last sequential cyclical tops and bottoms . . . moving from confirmation to confirmation. Also, to OddTrader: The double a penny problem will run into issues of scale, even if you could do it on paper. A point will come when the size of your order will move the market. So the time it takes to build and unwind a postion will impact the equity curve, wouldn't it? - I assume OddTrader & Surfer are at least that intelligent. The point is, if you are trading with perfect consistency, why trade more than you need. The Market become a bank and you have a bottomless ATM card.
Well, there is not much to debate. We agree. So I guess my next question would be, do you have an innovation, or some technical concept that we are not already aware of here at ET? This is not a poke, I am always willing to add to my knowledge base. Regards Oddi
ProfLogic: You said before that you are right. Now you are saying that you are not right. What is going on here? Could you also rephrase your hypothesis more clearly? I think I know what you are saying but I am not exactly sure. Thank you.
Most people in the world 99% of them including ET are closed minded. I agree with you here about cycle and oscilator, but they do not know how to trade it. Although you gave away your method, but people here in ET can not recognize that. I am happy they stay in the blind . They are thinking to trade cycle analysis you have to predict. You are saying read the market, but they are so lazy to comprehend the difference it is laughable. If you want to discuss further about cycle theory pm me. I am not going to talk about this in the forum, because like you last four years I went through the market tic by tic and came to some conclusion and do not want to share with regular people. They have to pay their due in the market through research.
Is this the same guy who calls himself the logicmaster? Look at his bs calls in the 2004 Program Trade Section of his site: http://www.logicalmarkettrends.com/ It's funny how they are all entered and exited at round numbers.
"..for every sequential top there is a sequential bottom . . . the range in-between each is nothing more than potential profit." ProfitLogic Zero sum game is the name.
zzzzzz . . . aren't profits enough reward for a trader these days? A trading journal is one thing, but do you really need to come in here and ask other people to prove your theories wrong? The market can accomplish that very same job with far greater efficiency, with the added bonus of complete anonymity to save your ego from the same fate suffered by your trading account