Perfect TA...

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by UM_manager, Dec 12, 2005.

  1. The method I developed is based on the analysis of pure price, instead of information distorted by technical indicators. In fact, if the basic postulate of the technical analysis on repeatability of history is true, there will be no necessity to study behavior of indicators to answer the question about the further movement of the price. It will be enough to find such dynamics of the prices in the past, which would be similar to recent price dynamics investigated, for implement the best ever technical analysis.

    I use algorithms, based on fuzzy logic and statistical methods together with artificial neural networks to search for price movements similar to present one. Then I divide the area of future possible price movement into regions and calculate the quantity of similar price movements that corresponds to that region. More of past movements pass to that regions, more the probability will be that the future price will reach that region.
  2. cvds16


    the concept sounds interesting, does it work in real-time ?
  3. In most cases it gives good results.

  4. hi,

    what studies can you provide to support the above hypothesis?


  5. Hi, Surfer!
    Everybody knows, I think, that technical analysts base their research on the following three axioms:
    1. Market movement considers everything.
    2. The prices move with the trend.
    3. The history repeats itself.
    Technical analysis and studies of market dynamics are closely related to the studies of human psychology. Thus, the graphical price models identified and classified within the last hundred years depict core characteristics of the psychological state of the market. First of all, they show the moods currently prevailing in the market, whether bullish or bearish. Since these models worked in the past, we have reasons to suppose that they will work in the future, for they are based on human psychology which remains almost unchaged over years. We can reword the last postulate — the story repeats itself — in a slightly different way: the key to understanding the future lies in the studies of the past.
  6. hi um,

    i am well versed in all aspects of TA and its theory. you must have misunderstood my question. allow me to rephrase it:

    specifically to your method, described in the first post on this thread, can you provide any quantifiable evidence/studies that your entry tactic provides a greater probability of success than a random entry?


  7. hcour

    hcour Guest

    C'mon, surfmeister. You click on a thread w/the ridiculous heading "Perfect TA" and then are disappointed when it's bs?

    The gist of his blah-blah is that:
    Wow. That's original. Oh wait, no it isn't, Wyckoff and others were saying the same thing at the beginning of the last century. And Japanese candlestick chartist were saying it over 300 yrs ago.

    Looking at his GBPUSD chart, the top of his "projection" is at previous resistance from Oct and the lower projection is intially at previous support, then goes along w/the current downward trend. Looks like pretty much standard TA to moi. Where's the perfection or innovation come in? Is it because of the cool-looking white smeary graphics?

    But thank goodness somebody asked for further explanation so he could promote his service. Mission accomplished for another shill.

    Perfect TA? Anyone who's ever used TA or traded at all knows how absurd this is. I clicked on the thread thinking it was a joke. Apparently not.

  8. I am not ready to write this off.

    But here are some facts:
    • This fellah is not a sponsor here, but is allowed to post his link to his website.
    • He will never give step by step instructions, how he got those results in the html table that quadrupled his assets, because he could not sell the signals anymore.
    • The trades are real not hypothetical it states, which puts his service om my list of candidates, as I will not trade hypothetical results if I were to use such a thing as a signal service.* **

    Michael B.

    * This is the result of actually executed trades (in accordance with our 'Signals' service).

    ** Based on leverage 1:5.
  9. hcour

    hcour Guest

    Ok, then what is unique about it, besides the graphics? Again considering the GBPUSD chart, this looks like standard TA w/Support & Resistance w/a bearish bias in the direction of the current trend. But if, in late Dec, price is at the top of his projection on a strong rally, which is to say at the next normal resistance following a possible shakeout, what will the bias of his current projection be at that point? I wonder, will the low perchance be at 7000ish and the high around 8500ish on a somewhat bullish bias? Standard TA, not perfect, just probability.

    And if he's indeed found perfection, why on earth would he wish to sell it?

  10. hcour

    hcour Guest

    GBPUSD w/standard TA channel and s/r lines overlayed on the Perfect TA chart.

    Nothing special here.

    #10     Dec 12, 2005