Perfect Indicator Signals +20% In a Year!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Apr 28, 2010.

By Apr 2011 SPY Will Move By...

  1. +30%

    2 vote(s)
    15.4%
  2. +20%

    1 vote(s)
    7.7%
  3. +15%

    3 vote(s)
    23.1%
  4. +10%

    1 vote(s)
    7.7%
  5. +5%

    1 vote(s)
    7.7%
  6. Flat

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. -5%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. -10%

    1 vote(s)
    7.7%
  9. -15%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. -20%

    3 vote(s)
    23.1%
  11. -30%

    1 vote(s)
    7.7%
  1. i have hard time to believe that some stupid indicator can foresee the market outcome a year away.

    this is what i think. historically, the market grows by ~10%. so it is trivial to find year-long stretches that >=+10%. stretches with +20% are much more rare, but still there must be plenty of those in the last 40 years. so, if one were to go through a bunch of indicators he would not have trouble finding one that "works" on a subset of those +20% stretches.

    does not mean the market can't do +20% this time...
     
    #11     Apr 29, 2010