We shall see, but it looks like that call might be premature as well. You are, however, shaping up to be a good contrary indicator.
Perelman-Shortie Uncertainty indicator went silent at the open. So, NO Short call for today. Darn, yesterday it let me down. I personally have a Long bias short-term but used yesterday's warning to seriously hedge my long position. Yes, it was a premature call but it was the correct thing to do. You can't get them all.
That's right. Too bad u wuz wrong. By the way EUROPE EUROPE EUROPE! Just saying, it will probably be the "theme" of the next leg up. Absolutely nobody is overweight Europe anymore these days, totally unjustified given that Europe always lags the US economy so the meat of its recovery should be just around the corner. The last "theme" was QE/US recovery so the US outperformed and before that it was EM's. Now it'll probably be "Hey, Europe aint so bad if you kinda ignore PIIGS" (which by the way is perfetcly reasonable). Alternatively it will be Japan's rebound but I find that less likely and one can have multiple themes. Not to mention that the Euro isn't going down any time soon despite all the pikers calling for parity and also not to mention the fact that valuations are still a lot more attractive down here than on the US stock indices.
No no no, here's what I meant - if we do this its got to be on the up and up. We start a thread in TRADING - open an additional live account just for this contest - ALL account info sent to BARON before the contest start date. Account opening size is irrelevant - we go by % winner. 3 months duration. ALL trades must be posted within 60 seconds of entry or exit or addition or change of STOP etc. Then finally the ACCOUNT info at the date of end of contest and account closure sent to BARON BARON posts the results of the contest in the thread. I trust the BARON to be fair. Let's begin, what do you say?
I DON'T trust anybody's trade that is not posted within 60 seconds of entry or exit with all other factors such as STOPs etc. also posted within the 60 second mark. ET is loaded to the hilt with vague trades. Furthermore, by giving the account info to BARON we ensure that it is a LIVE trading venue. Remember, you get to pick the instrument - we can negotiate on which instrument because its possible that I might not have the data or in some cases such as options, I don't trade those. But this is easily handled if you trade currencies. As an example we could go with the universal EurUsd. Come on man, step up to the plate. I don't have a problem giving name, dob, SS#, account #, starting amount and finally a letter from the broker accounting office directly to BARON. I can authorize it easily. If you need time to get other affairs in life in order that's fine - when we go at it, let's not have any life's circumstances as possible excuses. The one-shot 3-month deal settles it permanently. NO replays.
If one excludes Germany, Poland, Turkey and Russia, it is over for western europe: older population, no colonies to exploit as in the past, debt, talent leaving overseas, immigrants not integrated, a dozen languages, no strategic natural resources.....
Tsing Tao, One other thing - to make this worthwhile for the both of us there's gotta be a prize - I'll let you decide how high you want to go - I'll start with USD 10k that must be posted in advance to Baron with a letter from attorney bla bla - Baron pays the winner, no questions asked. I'll be happy to sign such an agreement. best of luck
In a few years that will be "the past" (and I don't disagree these are problems at this time). Remember, we're thinking about "the future" here. Also, I'm not saying that Europe is going to be the growth powerhouse of the world, not even close. I'm saying its stocks are undervalued relative to US stocks. I don't really know the Asian or South American markets well enough to make a comparison to those so maybe it's best to invest there. Either way European large caps are as much global enterprises as any other so it doesn't depend on Europe whether those valuations will become less attractive (by becoming higher), it depends on market sentiment. By the way more old people isn't necessarily a bad thing. They will consume and we've got the productivity and wealth to support them easily. And by we I mean the solvent countries of Europe. Also, less than 1% of Turkey is in Europe so how you include that I don't know. Russia also has very little to do with Europe. In case this is unclear or you somehow hadn't realized, this is just the kind of thing that makes you an ass. If you are actually serious about putting 10k on a bet over an argument on an internetsforum, you're not just an ass you are also an idiot.
I gave you a trade, you said you don't trust it. As I said earlier, I know you'd come up with some excuse and that's fine. I don't want anything to do with you anyway.