Perelman-Shortie Uncertainty Suggests Red Day Today

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Jun 27, 2011.

  1. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Highly suspect or not, it's happening.
     
    #11     Jun 27, 2011
  2. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    The actions might be dumb, but unions have not really been for the united good. Just look at how CT unions voted down the plan that would have zero layoffs. Now thousands might lose their job. The rationale? Those that would lose their jobs are not me as I have seniority. Very ugly.
     
    #12     Jun 27, 2011
  3. Locutus

    Locutus

    I don't see how this is an appropriate discussion to tie unions into.

    That said, I'm not such a fan of the way unions generally operate across the western world either.
     
    #13     Jun 27, 2011
  4. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    I am leveraged long, but I have to admit that the protesters led by the unions in Greece could force into irrational behavior. Probably the same irrational behavior people go through when they see their portfolios down and sell.
     
    #14     Jun 27, 2011
  5. "Greek lawmakers begin a three-day debate today on the 78 billion euro ($111 billion) austerity measures, with a vote expected to be on June 29."

    so this is the factor explaining why the volatility is bid up. if this is the case then selling volatility is easy money. the greeks won't default (at least not this time).
     
    #15     Jun 27, 2011
  6. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    I don't think the Greeks will default but given that I am 4x long, I wonder IF the Greek default, what my "default" action would be...
     
    #16     Jun 27, 2011
  7. joneog

    joneog

    incontinence?
     
    #17     Jun 27, 2011
  8. Locutus

    Locutus

    Tbh I could see the market rallying a day after, if Greece defaulted and the world magically didn't end. Maybe a quick panic selloff, but even that I wouldn't bet money on at this point.
     
    #18     Jun 27, 2011
  9. joneog

    joneog

    I guess it all comes down to the EUR. A greek default hits the banks and ecb holding the paper, the interbank market, the other periphery concerns. Everyone will be running around screaming about a collapse in the EUR and right now its still 13 figures higher than its late 10' - early 11' lows.

    I just don't see how the EUR doesn't get smashed on a Greek default, especially since the consensus is a bailout. If the EUR goes so does every other risk asset.
     
    #19     Jun 27, 2011
  10. Locutus

    Locutus

    Yes but a Greek default doesn't undermine the value of the Euro in any form. After all, default means there will be less Euros and I really don't see how a Greek default could impact the demand for Euros. After all we are talking about a sovereign default here, not anything to do with the economic fundamentals of the Eurozone.

    Also for fun, a bullish article from CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43549908

    Read the comments "JEFF, you should be FIRED on the spot." :D :D :D
     
    #20     Jun 27, 2011