i would be hesitant to bet against Perelman-Shortie Uncertainty 127.65 i note that the option folks are keeping Vol high despite Up day (so far). i hope they did not discover the Math behind the Uncertainty.
I sure hope not. Trend followers have been getting completely clobbered the past few months anyway so I wouldn't expect that to change to favouring a downtrend in an already edgy market. Europe is acting like it's time to smoke some bears tomorrow though, so expect a gap up on tuesday. Also it would be pretty naive to expect the market to stay in its range until after the Greece vote. It's never that easy. If it does stay in the range until then I would be getting more bearish though. One other thing, while I don't think Greece matters (in particular not for long term equity returns), I think sentiment is highly overestimating the odds that the plan will be voted down. Politicians will always be weasels who will do what is politically profitable, and for the opposition it is currently more politically profitable to put up a "fight" than to not put up a fight and in the end it will be highly politically unprofitable to vote down the plan because anyone with half a brain knows what will happen to Greece then (no more retirement at all, let alone at 53). What's particularly dumb in this whole situation is that it's the socialist party that is pushing privatisations and austerity and the conservatives are resisting it. How morally bankrupt can a poltical class become, to put populism before the good of the nation?