Where were all of the analysts seeing and forecasting doom and systemic collapse in 2007? Where was the crowd participating in the housing boom? How wrong was everyone? That said, the crowd is usually wrong about the future. And in this case, the crowd is forecasting doom and depression. The crowd is only good at telling you what has happened, not what will. Everyone thinks the most recent trend will continue -- that is what analysts and businessmen do. How foolish on a certain level GM or countless other companies must look in 'speculating' on high price of oil (even though even I believe it is a good bet on the very long term) ... causing shutdown of light truck and SUV manufacturing or hedging high oil prices only to see their bets backfire in a period of 3 months?! Guys like John Thain and the rest calling for a dismal 2009... Again, this is the crowd. That said, I'm not making a stocktrad3r call of Dow to 15000 next year, but I am saying the future will be filled with many other black swans that make what we expect to happen probably never to occur. That is the only thing certain.