Percentage of Successful Trader

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by Bluegar3, Nov 11, 2006.

  1. Hi,

    I have been a professional poker player for about 2.5 years. Due to the recent legislation that passed banning internet poker for the most part I am on search to find a new gig.

    Bright Trading in Las Vegas, NV has a month long class that you attend where they teach you the ins and outs of day trading. Because this is something that interests me, I think I'll give it a shot.

    I was wondering a couple of things... What is the percentage of traders that actually make it? Percentage of trader who make over 100,000? 250,000?. Any information about the odds of sucess would be greatly appreciated.

    Thanks,
    Brian
     
  2. The National Futures Association says on average, that it takes about 5 years and a loss of $35,000 just to become profitable. That study was for day trading.

    Some say around 90-95% fail in 3-6 months. I've read about some very successful traders and they said it took about 7 years to reach their peak.

    I say it doesn't matter what the stats are. It's totally up to you.

    Everyone is different. Some pick up on it right away. Some never get it.

    Try it out.
     
  3. i had a fellow trader that went to a Bright Training seminar in LV, NV just to feel it out and his opinion of it was that it was a little shady... apparently they claimed that their WIN % is around 80%?!?!? no f'n way...


    his thoughts on it were that they basically have people come in and then they sell a bunch of subscriptions and pair trading strategies, etc to make their money. there is no risk to the company and a lot of profit potential on their side.
     
  4. depending on your trading style, and the size of the risked points relative to targeted points, 80% is not impossible

    1) if you have preconceived notions (without data) as to what is impossible, you are setting yourself up for mediocre performance

    2) plenty of setups have approx. 80% win rate. some setups I use for scalping futures have just over 80% win rate, with a 3/2 risk/reward ratio.
     
  5. 60-70% success rate if youve already got the psychological makeup to gamble succesfully.

    ull need to find an edge obviously. thats a big difficult but after about a yr studying the markets i think 60-70% of people will at least find one decent edge.

    once uve found the edge then ull probably have no real problems pulling the trigger as uve played poker.
     
  6. The question is:

    What base capital do you have? If you can open a 3m trading account it is quite simple to make 200k every year. If your account is only 1m then 200k is already somewhat of a challenge.

    People here on this forum will tell you otherwise because they never traded any big account, but making small money out of big money is not as easy as it sounds because you don't wanna risk losing your a** over a few "unlucky" trades. Manage your money. Read books. Forget the seminars. Check the book review section here, there is plenty of material to find out what type of trading will suit you best. With your poker background it might be a good idea to go for intra-day trading/scalping but then again I am fully automated and only know so much about these things.

    On the Net, you will read and hear all over the place

    "Make 80% annually"
    "Make 10% a month".

    Don't buy it. It's BS. The untold truth is this: If you can make anywhere from 20-35% a year CONSISTENTLY (!) from trading in any market phase with a drawdown ("maximum temporary loss") of 1/3 of that (i.e. 30% profit, 10% drawdown) then you belong to the very very best at Wall Street.

    Anything over 40% consistently year after year and you're close to what the best hedge fund managers were able to make in their very very best years - which many say are now over but that's just talk.

    I guess in poker any beginner can double their money as well - with the right streak of luck. The thing is how do you become profitable year after year. I don't think you can learn being a pro poker player over one or two seminars. I believe it would take years of experience, training and self-education.

    For trading, it's a big difference making 100% in a 10k account or making 25% on a 1m account if that 1m is what you worked hard to get for the last 10 years.

    I am sure 1000s of college whizkid traders with 3k accounts at Etrade here on the forum will disagree with me but this is the truth, I am sorry.
     
  7. Yearly income for skilled, experienced traders is debatable. Here's one scenario after someone has learned the ropes, paid their dues, fought the good fight, etc ad nauseum the usual cliches`:

    $1,000,000 account balance on January 1st

    Trading emini S&P (ES) one contract per $10,000 balance
    Trading 100 contracts initial
    1 contract = $50 per index point
    Risk per trade is -2pts / -$100 or -1% of account balance risked

    Said trader is able to average +20pts per month, +1pt per day blended average. That includes net-loss days and net-loss weeks in the blended average over time.

    *

    Average monthly gain: 20pts x $50 x 100 contracts = +$100,000

    Jun 1st account balance: $1,500,000
    Nov 1st account balance: $2,000,000

    Math is an exact science... it never lies. Those numbers are very possible for skilled traders. The variable involved are market dynamics to a lesser extent AND human emotions to the greatest extent.

    Mathematically, there is no difference between trading 1 ES contract in a $3,000 account versus trading 333 contracts in a $1mil account. Emotionally, there would be a monumental difference of perceived risk.

    Perception is reality, reality is a different experience for all of us in life. It is highly possible for skilled emini traders to double an account inside of one year while controlling risk to acceptable degrees. No one will tell you it's easy... but then again, where is making this kind of money in lasting fashion ever easy?
     
  8. As far as I know recent legislations didn't make internet poker illegal. They just prohibit US financial institutions from funding online gambling sites. There are plenty of poker rooms out there that still accept US customers.


    http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_law/article/1446
     
  9. I agree with what Makloda wrote.

    I have been involved in the markets for about 12 years now, 3 as a trader. I actually am a pairs trader(Not with Bright)

    The best route is to join a prop firm and try to earn between 15-25% per year. With the leverage they provide, you can make 100K a year if you have put up sufficient capital.

    50%+ year after year returns are BS. Not with large amounts of money(2-3 million). Very possible with 100K or so, but it entails a lot of risk. The majority of traders who lost 50% will not post their results.

    Just my opinion.
     
  10. TRADERCJ

    TRADERCJ

    I believe time is the biggest factor if you can be successful. When I first started out I was blowing thousands of dollars a day, because I didn't know what I was doing. It takes time, if you blow all your cash right away, your done.

    For me, I have been doing daytrading/swing trading for 3 years, I still have a ways to go. In terms of money, I stopped looking at % of the account, because everyone has a different amount. My personal goal is to get to 5 points(stocks) a week in profit. I think this is realistic, last week I did 1.6 points.

    Hope this helps
     
    #10     Nov 12, 2006