Being long ahead of the 50 bp bopper seems like the smart move but think about what the guys with the big money are doing. Most hedge funds are down. Most mutual funds are down. Down big. When the chips are down, what are natural instincts of most traders? That's right. To gamble. To go all in ahead of the Fed. The only way to hit it out of the ball park and come back from a horrible January. Almost no one is going all in on the short side, so what does that leave us with? Yes, desperate fund managers are going to the long side for a big gamble hoping Uncle Ben will provide the goods again and provide a huge rally like in September. Look for a sell the news reaction to 50 bp, with a possible late closing rally and look for apocalyptic selling on 25 bp cut. It will be totally brutal if there is only a 25 bp cut considering how everyone is positioned. But knowing Ben, he will give what Wall Street wants with the 50 bp cut to help his banker buddies.