Pekelo's 2nd gap rule

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Pekelo, Aug 16, 2006.

  1. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Well, the rule doesn't tell you that. It only says, "the second consecutive same direction gap has (well, used to have) a 90+% probability of closing the gap by the trading day's end."

    But how the market behaves during that 6.5 hours is not indicated. It could go higher until 9:45 then drop back, it could keep going up until early afternoon and melt down,etc.

    If you look up the NDX chart instead of the SPX, the earlier mentioned 16th of this month, NDX kept going up until noon, and then it melted down and actually closed that huge upgap by 4 pm. It wasn't a 2nd gap, I am just using it for illustration. But th SPX chart was quite different and it never melted down.

    Now the following Monday what was a 2nd gap but not consecutive, the market went down from the open and closed the gap by 11 am, then returned to rally.

    The point is, we just never know, and if you guys notice some kind of logic in the behavour, don't hesitate to share it...

    Edit: We are looking right now at an 8 pts upgap based on the futures...
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2018
    #61     Aug 27, 2018
  2. Seems to not work, also small sample size is not statistically relevant.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^GS...tZVVuaXQiOiJtaW51dGUiLCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7fX1dfQ==

     
    #62     Aug 27, 2018
  3. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Out of curiosity, can you run the backtest on 2017?
     
    #63     Aug 27, 2018
  4. I trade using PA and only automation is indicators that I have for NT. I can do forward tests once I find something good by actually trading in small size.

     
    #64     Aug 27, 2018