Well, the first call was a bust. For 9 trading days it was so-so, the market going sideways and on the last day of my timeframe it proved me wrong. My vertical calls are at full pain, the market has 2 weeks to ease that pain before expiry. Or if I close one side earlier and timing it right, I have 10 chances to do so... Trump might want to help me out with his the "calm before the storm" remark...
Just to keep this journal more on the positive side, I would mention my TEVA call, although I won't include it in the count here. Someone asked me in the TEVA thread after the news of MYL taking away business from them where TEVA's price was headed? I saw an descending triangle on its 5 mins chart so I said, it would dip below $16. The next day it did, went down to 15.6 then bounced back but now the former $16 support line acted as resistance and the price went down again, closing at 15.68 Here is its chart:
I was 4 days and about 8 points too early. 2 weeks later the SPX is at 2558, 30 points lower. Let's make another call: 3. This is a good opportunity to buy and SPX will go up to 2580 in less than a week. Currently around 2560.
This prediction has been fullfilled, the SPX is topping a point above my target. I was kind of cautious with the target and actually expect it to go much higher, but first it has to cross the SMA line on the daily chart. That line is around 2583 and we have a gap to be filled at 2585. The gap from yesterday has been filled already.
I didn't make it an official prediction, but I was right on the money. Posted on Oct 31st, when TSLA was mid-$320: The stock actually dropped way more, like 30 bucks, and it took the semi reveal last night, but the stock premarket is back at $324.
I would like to apologize to the readers of this journal. Recently I have made some highly accurate Bitcoin price predictions but they were posted in the Bitcoin price thread between post #811 and #1005. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bitcoin-price-thread.315402/page-96 I was kind of live blogging as price moved and pop corn crunched because that seemed to be the appropriate place. The reason I am going to repost some of them here isn't because I am incredibly modest (although you know I am), but because I used TA to predict the price and I am going to reference this post in the future anytime somebody is bitching about technical analysis. I will even explain why I made those predictions: So I started out on Monday morning with this (all price references are from Bitstamp): Price was still between 18-19K at this time, most people expecting further upward movement. The reason for this prediction was obvious, price went vertical. Anytime when a stock goes vertical without a good reason, it has to come down. Just check SQ's price action, Bitcoin will follow that. OK, I gave myself quite a bit of a wiggle room putting a 10 weeks frame on this one, but you can never know the madness of the people or when Charlie Lee decides to sell his coins. Nevertheless, by Friday morning price bottomed at 11160. So if you were a hodler and listened to me, you should be owning 30% more coins then a week before. Thursday evening when I was enjoying the shitstorm and watching the sell off, I posted this: I forgot what time frame I was using, because I kept switching them. But the bounce coming seemed obvious. Sure enough there was a double bottom around 13300 and it bounced up to 15K before returning to the sell off. I went to sleep after that but on Friday morning when price penetrated my 12K expectation, it also reached the lower BB on the daily chart so I called for a bottom: Friday around 9 am: In a few short hours it was back to 14K, and more.... Again, I didn't just predict, I also explained it earlier: So far the high after the 11 160 bottom has been 15 300, very close to my expected 15.7K posted prediction. It has been fun times. TA specially when there is not much fundamental value, rules! One note about BBs, when price is far from it, it is hard to estimate the exact value where price and the band will meet because the band constantly moves depending on the price. That is why earlier I called for 12K then I adjusted it lower when price got much closer to it.