Peak oil

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Pekelo, Jul 30, 2006.

  1. Pekelo


    For a nice start, read this 5 esseys on the subject, 3 pro, 2 con.

    Also for the history of oil (last 15 years not included) read The Prize, by Daniel Yergin.

    My take on the subject:

    If we define peak oil as in growth rate between production/consumption, we had it last year. That was the first year when growth of demand outpaced the growth of supply.

    If we define peak oil in as world wide absolute oil production, my bet is in the next 3-5 years.

    Hubbert-curves, country by country:
  2. I'm the first to believe in peak oil, but lets be objective - these curves from your second link are BS. the OECD one made me laugh. The trend line is up, but that conveniently drawn curve was hilarious. Also political and price influences are not factored in to these moving averages.

    We have to be careful to fight with a loaded gun, not with blanks. The hyperconservative religious right that believes there is unlimited oil in the ground because humans are entitled to it will use these weak arguments against peak oil.

    Not that it matters, because at worst peak oil will force a switch to something cleaner.

    moving averages can be such a copout, especially when used like this.

    Look at this.
  3. Pekelo


    They only work well in countries with uninterrupted (political, economical,etc.) oilproduction.
    Look at Russia, there was a 4 years break in the line due to thier political troubles...