PEAK OIL? Natural Gas to the Rescue

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by TraderZones, Oct 13, 2009.

  1. Energy Crisis Postponed: New Gas To The Rescue; U.S. May Return to Energy Self-Sufficiency

    Engineers have performed their magic once again. The world is not going to run short of energy as soon as feared. Tony Hayward, BP's chief executive, said proven natural gas reserves around the world have risen to 1.2 trillion barrels of oil equivalent, enough for 60 years' supply – and rising fast.

    "There has been a revolution in the gas fields of North America. Reserve estimates are rising sharply as technology unlocks unconventional resources," he said. This is almost unknown to the public.

    As for the U.S., we may soon be looking at an era when gas, wind and solar power, combined with a smarter grid and a switch to electric cars returns the country to near energy self-sufficiency.
    ~Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the U.K. Telegraph


    MP: The chart above shows monthly U.S. natural gas imports back to January 1985 and through July 2009 (EIA data here). Imports in May of this year (258,033 MMcfs) were at a level last seen almost 11 years ago, in November 1998 (see bottom red line in graph). On a 12-month moving average basis (to smooth out the monthly variations), natural gas imports have fallen this summer to the same level as January 2001, almost nine year ago (see top red line in graph).
  2. I like reading AEP - but on this, he was a little over the top. Which is not uncommon when journalists read and then report on the energy sector. They usually overshoot on the doom or optimism - whatever the case may be. The shale gas plays look promising, but there are a lot of unresolved issues.

    First and foremost is hydrofraking and the millions of gallons of water required in the process. Then you have to deal with the contaminated water. Gas wells tend to deplete rather fast in these types of plays. There have also been a lot of dry holes.

    Current wells in the Barnett Shale in the US have not been as promising. But hey, Wall Street wants a game changer they can plow money into, so the energy execs comply and say "eureka!!!"

    Here's a more balanced view:

    Also, if you think this will take off, or if money will go into this big time - rationally or irrationally - there's a company I recently learned of. It's:

    They deal with the water issues inherent in hydrofraking. Matthew Simmons' firm recently started advising them. If you don't know who Simmons is - you don't know peak oil or the industry. He was adviser to GWB and also worked with Cheney's Energy Council.

    I bought in at .36 for Ecosphere. It's what I set aside for crazy bets that either work out big, or disappear. Who knows.
  3. Yeah, I like being right in print. Bought esph.ob at .36 now at .42... holding onto this long term. And yes, I'm pumping this stock - I think there's value here.