First of all, the big Western oil companies definitely aren't playing for time. They are taking out full page ads left and right saying "the age of easy oil is over," "Beyond Petroleum" etc. Could be many reasons for this, but they certainly aren't being coy with their opinions. Exxon is an exception, but based on their investment decisions (not investing in alternative energies or oil products over $20/bbl costs), it doesn't seem like they are "playing for time." Instead, it's quite likely that Lee Raymond and his disciples simply do not believe that high oil prices are here to stay. As for the Saudis, that's my question, why are they playing for time? After all, playing for time means more time to sell oil for less than it's worth. Incidentally, I mean "theoildrum.com geeks" with all due respect. I'm a big geek myself and I don't mean any harm by that term. I do think it is accurate though! Martin
Sure they are. Have you heard of any of them ACKNOWLEDGING peak oil? Check this list of projections from the Hirsch report, is it coincidence that the farest peak prediction is coming from Shell?? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report Those BP adds are for trying to get the costumers on their side. When the shit hits the fan, they want to be able to say: "hey, we have been trying so hard for so long to change".... Unrelated but educational info on the weakening dollar and its effect on oilprice: "On George W. Bush's inauguration day in January 2001, you could have purchased a barrel of oil for about $30. If you lived in Europe, a barrel would have set you back about 32 Euro. Because the value of the U.S. Dollar has fallen so substantially since then (it took 93 cents to buy a Euro in January 2001, it now takes $1.42), the increase in the cost of oil for a U.S. consumer has far outstripped the increase for a Euro (or Canadian, or Swiss, or just about any other) consumer. Today, it takes US $89 to buy a barrel of oil, but only 62 Euro. Going from 32 Euro to 62 is a healthy rise, but is less than a 10% annual increase since Bush has been in office. By contrast, the move from $30 to $89 is nearly a tripling, or more than 17% per year. Thus, of the $59 increase in the cost of a barrel of oil to a U.S. consumer, more than $30 is due to the depreciation of the U.S. Dollar and the fiscal and trade policies that have contributed to it. Not Middle East tensions, not China's increased appetite, etc. Same thing is true with skyrocketing price of gold; gold is going through the roof, sure, but what's really happening is that the dollar is going through the floor."
Chevron CEO: "The era of easy oil is over." In a widely placed advertisement. That's pretty much crystal clear. Martin
Here is an analysis of the comparison between them and the USA. http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/5/31/175512/149 Brazil is a good example how can be done IF a responsible government (by the way Brazil had a dictator when they started the ethanol program) acts in time. Nevertheless the real lesson is not the usage of ethanol but: "Yes, Brazil has in fact "figured it out" with respect to energy independence. But the reason they achieved energy independence is primarily because of their frugal energy usage, not because of ethanol. Increase their energy usage to U.S. levels, and the "energy independence miracle" would quickly vanish. This is the factor that the media and the politicians have overlooked. On the other hand, if the U.S. had the same per capita energy consumption as Brazil, we would be net oil exporters. In fact, our per capita energy consumption could be 11 barrels per person per year - triple the consumption of Brazil - and our production and demand would be in balance. We would be energy independent." I always say guys: Crunch the numbers!!!!! P.S.: For lazy people, here are the numbers: "According to Per Capita Oil Consumption and Production, oil consumption in Brazil is 4.2 barrels per person per year. In the U.S., oil consumption is 27 barrels per person per year, 6.4 times as much per person as Brazil's. However, we do produce much more oil per person than Brazil. Each year the U.S. produces 11 barrels per person, compared to 3.35 barrels per person for Brazil. In order to achieve energy independence, the gap between demand and production must be closed. Brazil has to close a gap of 0.85 barrels per person per year (4.2 - 3.35). They produce sufficient ethanol to close this gap, and therefore they are energy independent. The U.S., on the other hand, has to close a gap of 16 barrels per person per year. The U.S. gap in production/demand is almost 19 times greater than the production/demand gap in Brazil."
Ethanol is an abortion that survived somehow. It takes more energy to produce than it creates and all food products increase in price so it doesn't save any money.
GUYS, YOU HAVE TO ACKNOWLEGE HERE I GOT THIS RIGHT MONTHS AGO, WHEN CL WAS IN THE 70s / 80s. But this is not the reason I am pulling the thread up. Honestly. I just want to warn you what an incredible monster is entering the global economic stage. Mankind is unable AND reluctant to try as hard as possible to gather energy from different sources. - 2nd/3rd World: Millions (Billions?) of Humans will be DYING LIKE FLIES, 2015 - 2030. - 1st World: Stagflation, 20 years. Social distortions to the maximum, suppressed by a police states all over the western world. You want children? Think twice. PLEASE.
I forgot one thing: Everyone who is demanding for "regulation of speculation in CL" or "govt. intervention to gas prices" please go buy a brain. You have absolutely no idea, and forgive me, you must be f*king stupid.
Todays price action is strange, but a red alert signal. I think we hear something drastic very soon, over the next months. Maybe even something like: Global production is below 80 mb/day for 2009... :eek: Then, better prepare !
The action the past few sessions is the big-boys starting to cash out. The action today is the setup for the bagholders. Regards,