Discussion in 'Economics' started by local_crusher, Oct 15, 2007.

  1. I've thought a lot about it in the recent months. After all, I've come to the conclusion, we've seen "peak oil".

    Maybe late 2005, maybe 2006 until now, that won't matter.

    What does matter, indeed, is that you all have some really dark ages right ahead now.

    And no, price won't solve the margins between demand & supply.

    I think in a distant time the words will be the oil industry with all it's political might and power ruined billions life's as they sucked the last drops out.
  2. dhpar


    i absolutely agree.
    we are still going to see an increase in production (hopefully) - but bar some huge economic worldwide downturn it is not going to be enough to match the increased demand particularly from BRIC.

    the wild card is the decline of saudis fields - i start to hear some bad rumors.
  3. KS96


    think again
  4. Oil has been massively underpriced since the early 80s. Now that its finally starting to get valued more correctly, people think oil is too high. It is not too high. Oil is still cheap relative to its value to the world economy. It is the most essential nonrenewable commodity in the world.
  5. dhpar


    peak oil does not directly refer to oil price but simply to the oil demand/supply fundamentals. of course price will only go up in the longer term...

    i cut a nice summary from one oilpro poster from another (private) board:

    "Peak oil at its most basic simply states that over most of our history productive capacity has easily outpaced consumption, the peak is reached when the ability to find new production capacity and consumption are in an uneasy alliance and plateaued (with ripples of course). Post peak oil is simply when energy consumption has to rely increasingly on alternate energy sources as oil production can no longer support it single handedly. If there is no alternative - energy consumption simply declines lockstep with production - and nowhere does it have to be a smooth trailing off... In a sense we have been at peak for some time with increasing reliance on wind, wave, tide, solar, gas, coal, nuclear and massive energy saving strategies implemented."
  6. nah, you'll keep hearing about this peak oil scam every once a few yrs, and guess from whom...yep, the ones and only major oil cartels pr neworks.

  7. current oil prices comes from loosy Fed monetary policy and weak dollar

    It's irreversable right now since dollar still overvalued so prices will increase in the near future

    Although as US population will loose its purchase power demand will become weaker which will help in stabilizing oil price. I don't say price will stabilize in US$ but in Euros it should stabilize within 2-3 years
    In dollar it will continue to rise of course
  8. dhpar


    kashirin, i agree with some of what you say. from other threads i know we are on the same page.
    however where i differ is the sentence where you say that demand will decline an therefore oil prices (measured e.g. in euros) will stabilize. why would demand stop increasing?
  9. I doubt it will stabilize in €.

    Reason: Supply/Demand of course, but
    furthermore: The US is applying pressure behind the scenes on G8 countries to follow it's policy to weaken paper currencies long term.

    While € may be considered a "safe haven " now, don't be sure that is forever.
  10. What is peak oil? We have a couple hundred years of coal that can be gassified, large deposits of oil sands and oik shale that would keep us going for decades, methane/hydrates on the ocean bottom in huge supply, not counting the decades of oil still left in the ground, natural gas deposits, and continuously growing alternative energy supplies, plus renewed growth in various nuclear reactors that will come online over the next decades.

    There is no energy shortage, the only questions are, "at what envorinmental cost" and "at what price" ??
    #10     Oct 15, 2007