Peak Oil for Real?????

Do you believe in a crisis after peak oil?

for more info you can view this page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory

 

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=peak+oil

 

Yeap, it is real and depending on what definition you use, we have passed it already. Scrap that, we passed it by all 3 definitions:

1. Relative production per humans. Passed it back in 1979...
2. Absolute production, see below.
3. Consuming speed outgrowing production speed, passed it in 2006.

For the absolute production numbers, see this:

1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2006 (11 months) is 84.59 mbpd, up 0.01 mbpd from 2005.

2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 81.40 mbpd, down 0.03 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).

3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 73.48 mbpd, down 0.09 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).

4. NGPL: the peak date remains February 2005 at 8.05 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 7.92 mbpd, up 0.06 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).

Source: Theoildrum.com

There is very little extra (shoe-in) capacity left, the world could probably go up 2-3 mpbd higher if needed, but pretty much that's it, we are at the zenith of the curve. Probably it is going to take a few years, when it becomes obvious for everybody, but we will never reach 90 mbpd....

 

AXIOM 1: If the pirce is high enough alternatives appear.

Coal to liquid fuels fischer trope. Cellulosic ethanol. Breeder reactors. Photovoltaic. Fuel efficiency. Catalytic hydrogen plasmas.

 

It's never about the oil.

It's about how and how expensive it is to get to it.

Is it near the surface, just itching to spring forth, or do we have to pump hydro through shale 2,500 feet under the ground, or use a rig to drill 1,500 feet under the seabed, to extract it?

 

True, but it doesn't take away from the fact that oil is a non-renewable source of energy and oil production is peaking. So better get ready with those alternatives...

For extra fan, the dropping Saudi production:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2331

P.S.: In the future countries could go to war for oil. Oh, nevermind...

 

Good, let's see if they can grow corn in their sand!

 

Ethanol is still WAY more expensive than petroleum. It costs more to produce and refine, too.

 

Here is a currency for forex traders:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gascoupon.png

 

Point being that carbon based energies doesn't need to take millions of years to produce.

Technology can take our carbon waste and convert it to crude equivalent for the price of current oil.

It's a billion dollar gamble that crude will remain over $40/br.....