PEAK OIL - A myth???

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by TraderZones, Mar 5, 2008.

  1. Peak Oil is not about oil running out. It's about the end of cheap oil. Peaking is a reservoir’s maximum oil production rate, which typically occurs after roughly half of the recoverable oil in a reservoir has been produced. Most of the remaining reserve is hard to get - that makes it more expensive. It also means it takes more and more energy (and Money) to extract. That in turn means that it will become harder and harder to maintain flow rates (the number of barrels a day extracted). Unless reserves can be turned into flows, we have a big problem.

    In many ways, what is likely to happen on a world scale is similar to what happens to individual reservoirs, because world
    production is the sum total of production from many different reservoirs.

    Because oil is usually found thousands of feet below the surface and because oil reservoirs normally do not have an obvious surface signature, oil is very difficult to find. Advancing technology has greatly improved the discovery process and reduced
    exploration failures. Nevertheless, oil exploration is still inexact and VERY expensive. Once oil has been discovered via an exploratory well, full-scale production requires many more wells across the reservoir to provide multiple paths that facilitate the flow of oil to the surface. This multitude of wells also helps to define the total recoverable oil in a reservoir so-called “reserves.”
     
    #11     Mar 7, 2008
  2. Daal

    Daal

    the same people who say technology will save the day are the people who have no idea what the techonolgy is
     
    #12     Mar 7, 2008
  3. Renewable Energy
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy

    Enhanced Oil Recovery
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_oil_recovery

    Methane clathrates
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_hydrates

    Oil Shale
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale

    Tar sands
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_sands



    Any other clueless statements in your little bag of witty sayings?
     
    #13     Mar 7, 2008
  4. Daal

    Daal

    now do the same research for cantarel, north sea, kwait fields. do the same for projected demand from asia. oil shale and tar sands?have you seen the projected output from this?it barely will meet growing demand from the US let alone the world
     
    #14     Mar 7, 2008
  5. Post evidence, not opinion. Projections usually have little basis in reality. There is enough oil, coal, and gas for a very long time.

    If it is there, then projections have no meaning. 'Gee, the existing drill rigs cannot pump any faster!" Then put in more drill rigs.

    The content of these things is huge. If the price is right, the projected output will accelerate geometrically. Money always flows towards profit. If oil goes to $200 or so a barrel, the spigots will expand rapidly.

    It is like gold. When the price goes down, mines are shuttered. When it goes up, they reopen and expand.

    Technology always finds a way if there is $$$
     
    #15     Mar 7, 2008
  6. Peak oil isn't going to happen. Oil will price itself out of the market before all the oil is completely gone, just like coal and natural gas did during the industrial revolution. There's a lot of answers to be had from looking at the past...

    Already we see the process of oil pricing itself out beginning with the solar energy initiatives and the fact that gas is approaching $4 a barrel.
     
    #16     Mar 7, 2008
  7. Daal

    Daal

    then we are on the same page. there is no doubt that this will happen, there is also no doubt that this bull market in oil and energy is here to stay eventually things might get bubbly in terms of productive capacity but we are far from it, by 'peak oil' some people just mean that the underinvestment from two decades have not been worked off, the easy oil era is over and we should buy energy on dips
     
    #17     Mar 7, 2008
  8. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    What the hell, I enjoy abusing the idiots!

    Time out. Thanks for agreeing with me. You say correctly, that oil will run out in 40 years. So you basicly ACKNOWLEDGING peak oil. You are just too damn to notice it. :(

    All the coal, nat. gas talk is needed, because oil is PEAKING. Not to mention peak oil theory doesn't talk about other resources. It simply says that a limited resource will be used up sooner or later.

    peak oil =/= peak energy

    Idiot....
     
    #18     Mar 7, 2008
  9. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Actually, it is about both. It is OBVIOUS when we apply continuous consumption to ANY limited, unrenewable resource (be it oil, coal, uranium or beer on a desert island) sooner or later we will run out of it. You can debate the TIME when we will run out of it, but not the FACT itself...Unless you are a moron, of course...

    When people start to talk about substitutes, that is acknowledging the fact that we are running out of the material, thus we need substitutes.

    Oh yes, gravitation is a scam too, by the airline and elevator industry so we would use their products... :)
     
    #19     Mar 7, 2008
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    #20     Mar 7, 2008