What happens to home prices in a recession? I didn't say they were going to crash... I said they topped. For now. With or without a recession in 2025.
That's a valid point, if you only have 1 house, but if you have rentals, and you feel like lightening your load, now would be the time to put them on the market. Take the gains and lose the headaches.
Aside from the housing-led recession of 2007-2009, recessions rarely have much influence on the housing prices. In 2007-2009 recession, HPI index fell about 20%. Oh, OK. My impression was that "sell your house now" is only smart if you expect a crash (or need to sell regardless), given the transaction costs of 5%
That is totally horseshit. We've had glut in the inventory because of the years of peeps who did not want to sell, because of the new mortgage prices they'd have to incur under the inflationary high-rates. That is now reversing. In 12 months, the first-time buyer market is going to be hot hot hot.
Another market I like to watch - airplane ads and the airpark mansions that go with them - has seen a change over the past two years. High end heirloom classics are getting put up for sale, and marked down several times. You would never see this in the past until the owner was deceased. Same with high end project planes. Typically they are never sold until finished. Lots of cropduster pilots retiring and selling awesome stuff at a discount. Many more listings in general of higher end stuff, like everyone is getting too old to medically qualify for flying any more. There was also a huge wave of blue state refugees right after the covid lockdowns, moving to Texas, Tennessee, the Carolinas, Florida, etc. that has mostly stopped about a year ago. Now the unsold houses / hangars in these states are getting marked down. Mansions getting marked down, taken off market, relisted, taken off market. And of course, California stuff not moving for ANY reason! No one wants to come here, but that's why I love it. The cops are among the nicest I've ever seen. Basically the opposite of Oregon, Washington, etc. It sure "feels" like the wave of relocations after covid is coming to an end.
Yesterday was the 3rd biggest one day drop in XHB in the last 12 months if you include 9/4/23. Second biggest if you don't.
Vz housing will continue to go up but at a slower rate. I have a ton of stats on this I won't bore you. Consider 5% a year to be near what we will get. It will be a slowdown but no big fall can happen with so few homes on the market. Only the very hottest real estate markets will take a considerable hit Austin, Jackson Hole, etc The rest of us will just glide slightly up. Still very much a sellers market. Home prices will average low- to mid-single-digit annual appreciation over the next five years. This rate of appreciation is consistent with the long-term average of home prices increasing by a rate that hovers a percentage point above the inflation rate.