Just one man's opinion.... Keep in mind the markets final 2003 bottom coincided with the war in Iraq. Whether a short term brokered peace is achieved in Lebanon or not (and it will be), the markets anxiety over Iran will be heightened rather than soothed. Iran/Syria as the agent of settlement will only enhance Iran's chances of entering the nuclear age. Iran will now reinvent (sell) themselves as peacekeepers in the Mid East. Market's will not be amused.
Peacekeepers to whom ??? Sunni and Shia have started killing each other. Bin Ladens last tape told sunnis to go after the shia. Soon Israel will step aside let them demolish each other. Iran Shia are more worried about Pakistan nuking them than Israel or USA.
I don't think you can compare Iraqi War with Israel. Iraqi War was planned, so when it happened, the bad news was already factored. And if you look who is driving the market in the last few years: oil, gas, thank Iraqi War, we got a high oil. (sure there is China and India factor) Israel war is a sudden event, and oil price is already very high. Peace will give market some breathing room. If it continues, market will be bearish.
Oil has topped...... You heard it here first. Lower oil prices will not buoy stocks. In fact the slide in global equity markets will make those high crude invertories vulnerable to a quick $20 break.
=============== Most Market trends still bearish;rallys happen reguardless of oil uptrends. Like to factor in fundamentals ,Rich Dennis mentioned them in last Art Collins interview. Oil gas stock sector can still uptrend even if gas gets to 00.29.9. /gallon , again which would be an unlikely price. Oil actually came down an amazing % at retail; during great depression manily because they stopped some selling by barrel, and invented selling by quart