PBR PETROLEO BRASILEIRO almost a guaranteed bet.

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by bearnbull, May 21, 2008.

  1. And behold, the money-saving power of being patient. PBR currently trading in the $72 range. Look, this is not a flame thread, nor is it an "I told you so" thread, but it kills me to see people jump on the back of a parabolic stock that hasn't had any real pull back. It doesn't matter how awesome the company is, this happens everytime. It's a big, fat trap for retail investors. PBR will go higher, I would even pick up some more stock today, and tommorrow if 72 breaks down. As soon as it turns up, look for 75 to give some upside resistance. Here's a tip, a tip that I learned the hard way with parabolic/momentum stocks: If you see a stock with strong momentum, and hardly any down days, when you decide it's time to buy....wait 24 Hours. You will be suprised what can happen in a day if you fight the emotional impulse that screams BUY. It's all a big game, folks, one big, random game.
     
    #11     May 22, 2008
  2. eric7

    eric7

    I agree. If you look at the long term PBR/PBR-A trading history you will observe a number of serious retracements. This is why I cautioned against a 6% stop. I've lived through bigger negative moves than that but even with the retrospectroscope cannot honestly say that I could have accurately timed an exit and re-entry. I don't try to trade this company. I'm in for the long haul. The one thing that I do occasionally do is play with covered calls on a portion of my position. I onlyl do this with far out of the money since this thing can rocket at any moment and I really don't want to give up my shares.

    I honestly believe that Cramer, Seymore, etc. have had little real effect on this stock since it is driven by fundamentals and huge players that never tune into the likes of the street.com. One thing over the years that I have observed is that with any substantial pullback the smart money quietly moves in...

    CIAO
     
    #12     May 22, 2008
  3. G-Boa

    G-Boa

    you could just as easily short it here from 72 to 64 with a 4% stop at 74.88.....if past behavior helps you trade for future behavior this would be a good trade for you.

    i like PBR from the long side also, but with a patient perspective.
     
    #13     May 23, 2008
  4. Thanks for all yoour comments and suggestions. When I get in on a trade I know very well that it could go either way, it so happens that this call went the wrong way...no big deal. You win some you lose some. I'm still holding but took my trailing stop- I just have to keep and eye on her and make that "CORRECT" decision. No regrets whatsoever.:)
     
    #14     May 23, 2008