I just read a research note from David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff in Canada (he was the former Merrill chief economist) and he says that at this point in the cycle it is normal for the market to rally 20% ahead of the trough in employment, but not the 50% that it has without nary a sign that the job cycle has turned the corner. He sees $60 of earnings on the S&P for next year and puts a fair value P/E of 14x on the market to get an equilibrium level closer to 840, and not the 1,000 where we currently are.
Angrycat, thanks for posting that... I shouldn't be smiling though, because wrath is going to rain down on teh economies of the world. The real economy is absolutely horrible, and the MSM is full of either programmed liars or the dumbest motherf**ckers ever bred into existence.
He's short, obviously. He did make his first fortune by shorting just prior to Oct. '87. Then again, Livermore made $100mm by shorting just prior to 0ct. '29, and he shot himself years later, broke. Not implying anything whatsoever here, except that your only as good as your last trade. Jones violating one of his own top rules: price first, then fundamentals. Down 250k jobs tomorrow - dow up 200 Down 450k jobs - dow down 200 initially, then close up 200
Mr. Obama himself has indicated a weak August job market report : http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=171783 Good luck + good trading
August is always a tough month. The whole world goes on vacation. It's a month where it's easy to let the negative news slip in. It's usually always a good idea to be net short in August. I am.
I have every confidence that Goldman has only the best interests in mind of moms and pops everywhere. I'm certain their market prognostication this year will be every bit as accurate as their prediction of $250/barrel oil last year. Pay attention to what GS says and you'll be farting through silk!