Banks go down and so do thousands of businesses. Millions lose their jobs. ATM's stop working, ready cash is impossible to get. People panic. Paniced people are not rational. They're not just going to lay down and die in the street. They will take what they need, or what they think they need.
Why would thousands of business go down just because the large banks are crushed? Small to mid sized community banks would get hurt, but would take even more of the market than they do now. Right now, they're taking up on the lending side of the equation. ATMs stop working? Why? Cash for those in TBTF banks might be an initial problem, but not in smaller regional plays.
So demand in oil caused it to drop from $100 to under $80 in less than two months? Riiiight. Demand has (almost) nothing to do with it. It's more like the free Fed money has begun to dry up and the big players recognize the writing on the wall. No new QE means no new money to make it's way into the commodities market. You claim to have an understanding in what the market is telling us when commodities and treasuries (yield) are down. Please explain what this is saying in how it relates to your argument on demand. Demand for Treasuries is rising (yield dropping). You think this is based on demand for commodities falling? I'm just not sure what you are trying to say. Are you? Yes, positively stellar numbers.
Time my friend. The time it takes for cooler heads to prevail just wouldn't happen fast enough. Like I said, there will be panic. They won't be thinking that their money is safe in the community bank. They'll want it all, and they'll want it right now. Businesses will fail because all discretionary spending will stop. From resturants to car dealerships, ain't nobody gonna' buy what they don't absolutely need. Hording money will be the game plan for most people. Once the looting and shooting starts it won't be easy to stop.
I didn't think I needed to say "lack of" demand, since you already gave another thread on that very topic a "duh" affirmation.
550 buyin... then maintenance... you... gas... parking fees at other airports. 20-50 grand a month? I would have to step up my game to another level... and that level would be the very highest level I could get to in my line of work. No more posting on et. I would have to work harder and trade a lot more. For me the effort would not be worth it. I think that kind of money just has to flow in.
The word "Demand" (in my commentary) is meant to include both Strong and Weak Demand. Thank you for making me clarify what would have been obvious to a 12 year old. It still has little to do with the movements.
I think, if this actually goes down as you say, the phase of panic will be less than two weeks. Businesses won't have time to fail on a large scale.