Discussion in 'Trading' started by seleukos, Nov 1, 2005.

  1. seleukos


    Post three consecutive OHLC numbers without explaining name of the financial instrument and dates.

    That is:
    1 day ohlc: 125.15 126.45 124.12 125.30
    2 day ........................................
    3 day.......................................

    This means Open High Low Close of the day.

    For the close, do not put the settlement, rather put the last price of the day

    At no charge for you and for a period, we will calculate the next day bar, if bull or bear.

    That is, if we will reply Bull, clearly on the fourth day opening price is intended to be lower on respect of last(close) price. Vice versa if we will reply Bear.

    Some statistics: we guess 75.67% of the good responses, where good responses are 90% about of the general database.

    Explication --------
    The 10% not considered is due to:
    Poor patterns, statistically irrelevant for the number of the happenings (third standard dev. about)
    Two consecutive days with the same OHLC

    In fact, asking to us ten times you should result in
    1 Flat response
    9 Long or Short response

    Out of the 9 Long or Short responses, 75.67% should be correct.

    Lastly: if you send garbage, you will receive garbage...
  2. I play,

    D1 15.48 15.60 14.96 15.19
    D2 15.16 15.50 15.07 15.35
    D3 15.40 15.78 15.23 15.66
    D4 ?

    Buy, sell for D4?
  3. seleukos


    We found 24 observations for this three times pattern on our system. 58.33% bull and obviously the other bear.
    Remember that bull are considered the unchanged close also.

    The forecast is reinforced by the twice pattern (two days only) where 52% about is bull. 1651 observations.

    The once pattern (one day) is also confirming 56% bull with 74193 observations. This pattern keeps in account the harmonics of the last (3rd pattern also).

    If you are interested, we have another reply: all the three analyses reply that the closing of the fourth unknown pattern is higher than the previous close.

    You should be so kind to reply if correct or wrong.

  4. Thank you,

    D4 is today and therefore has not yet occurred and is not in any database for determination.

    Therefore, you are predicting the future and we shall see at the close today the result.
  5. seleukos


    Please if you send data of last year or of a month ago or we don't care when, we can reply immediately and so you can have quickly an idea of the matter.

    Remember that we should have one flat, 7.5 correct and 1.5 wrong about.

    Really, in 10000 random we have tipically 354 not usable, 7638 correct and 2008 wrong. Other Montecarlo's launches are quite similar.

    Moreover there are two types of forecast :

    TO (as the one you send) which forecasts if the today's close is bull or bear on respect of today's open.

    PM (plus minus) which forecasts if the today's close is higher or lower on respect of yesterday's close.

    Obviously they are quite different.
  6. D3 15.40 15.78 15.23 15.66
    D4 15.49 15.76 15.34 15.52

    Result: lower open and lower close

    Bullish Prediction: WRONG
  7. seleukos


    D3 15.40 15.78 15.23 15.66
    D4 15.49 15.76 15.34 15.52

    Result: lower open and lower close

    Bullish Prediction: WRONG

    Unfortunately, you have not read the stuff.
    The main forecast is correct because the closing price of yesterday 15.52 is higher than the opening price, 15.49.

    We are experimenting with the forecast of close vs previous close:
    15.52 is lower than 15.66 so it is wrong.

    The main approach is the type candle.
    The type of candle is bull, as forecasted.