PATTERNS -- So These REALLY Work???

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by al c., Mar 16, 2003.

  1. al c.

    al c.

    Trend Fader,

    You are right, it is not a "classic" pattern but, it is highly reliable and effective when it sets up. It's called a butterfly.

    al c.
    #11     Mar 16, 2003
  2. al c.

    al c.


    Regarding your comment about playing smaller patterns into the larger ones, I agree completely, that makes perfect sense and a strategy that I use as well.

    Have you, or do you ever use Fibonacci Ratios along with your pattern analysis?
    #12     Mar 16, 2003
  3. al

    Is this pattern some sort of Gartley or are you just using a type of "measured move" analysis off of high and low pivots?

    Also I was wondering with the chart you posted, are thare any specific angles fib #'s or retracements you are using and find are reproducable with this pattern?

    #13     Mar 16, 2003
  4. al c.

    al c.


    This is not a Gartley pattern and, yes there is a Fib. ratio of 1.27 at the entry target.

    #14     Mar 16, 2003
  5. of my trading is pattern based. I have been at this full time, more or less, for 15 years, and have only been really consistent for the past couple, so I wouldn't say its "easy" once you know the patterns. The psych factor, in my opininion, is the most important part.

    For what its worth, I trade retracements exclusively. I look for the same stuff over and over. I use a number of tools, all basic stuff (channels, FIB's, MA's).

    Works for anyway.

    #15     Mar 16, 2003
  6. Why did you draw so many lines? I would use just the last 3 lines forming a zigzag and it would work too. The lower part would be as long as the top one, the zig would not matter. What's the rationale for using more lines? Also, what's the rationale behind the 1.27 Fib retracement? I have never heard of such a number. How do you get it from the ordinary Fib Rets?

    #16     Mar 16, 2003
  7. al c.

    al c.


    My trading is strictly pattern based as well. However, I don't use ANY other indicators, strictly the price patterns which must meet specific FIB. RATIOS OF PRICE AND TIME.

    Keep up the good work,

    #17     Mar 16, 2003
  8. al c.

    al c.


    1.27 is the sq. root. of 1.618. These are Fib. EXTENSIONS NOT RETRACEMENTS and are vital to the way I trade.

    The extra line you refer to is the backbone of this pattern. The projected entry target was at precisely the 1.27 extension of that line.

    Hope this helps,
    #18     Mar 16, 2003
  9. In my experience, FIB retracements are golden on large range days intra day. The pit boys are looking at this I think. I know many of the hedge funds do. Also valuable for major long term points. Medium term, weeks to a month, I think its a bit worthless.

    That said, any retracement system will work in the long run if ya let the winners gain a bit. By definition you should be taking small losses and trading in the general trend when trading this way. Tough to do psychologically, but the only way I can make money day trading.

    BTW, When I said use MA's, its not what you think. I use em for support/resistance when there is no obvious channel or FIB point. My order of preference is:

    1. Channels. Even on a one minute chart.
    2. FIB retracements on an intraday level, or based on previous day if I think a range day is in store (subjective).
    3. Rally/decline to MA's. I prefer to use 10 period high/low, but five period on 15 minute charts (got that from Larry Williams, sort of. He uses 3 period, but that's too damn sensitive).

    #19     Mar 16, 2003
  10. Kermit


    I’ve only explored the principle behind using Fib Ratios, but do not yet feel comfortable or confident applying it in actual trades. So it is not part of my production system for analyzing patterns.

    #20     Mar 16, 2003