Yup, was going to add but guessed it was gonna make my previous post too long winded.... Weak traders finally perish. PERIOD! Adamant traders can improve via perseverance but there are no guarantees they will survive. Luck, randomness, chance can work for you or against you, those lucky often attibute success to skill which is bollocks. But largely trading is about random events, skilled experienced traders have an edge, those who work in a team and bounce ideas off one another have a better chance of success. Teams evolve faster, they buy better equipment, more organized, accumulate money faster which is thrown back into the pot which makes them more efficient again. But - even teams (large funds etc) can get hit with an outlier event and perish. Regarding Joe Six Pack traders, they too can perish, the market may go into recession, markets may stagnate for years, rules may change, fees may rise, a super internet virus may spread, large wars may develop where able bodies are conscripted, trading may morph into another method where existing methods no longer work, super algos may make trading so efficient only crumbs are left on the table, Govt may turn socialist and screw everything, blah blah blah....
%% LOL; in the movie, the hunchback threw hot liquid on those below. May be able to find some good patterns, all you need is a few. Its not rocket science; or like a Rube Goldberg creation LOL..............................................................................................
Here is a quote from a well known Pattern Trader: "Within the chaos of market activity are non-random patterns that repeat and are also identifiable. This happens because markets can only do three things; go up, go down or go sideways. Unfortunately they sometimes do all on the same day. However, there are certain patterns that occur on an almost daily basis allowing the pattern recognition trader a valuable window of positive probability. Probability is the key word here! Traders deal in probabilities – never in certainties. Only two professions deal in certainties – tax accountants and morticians."
Luck plays a much bigger role in our life and in our success than most of us are willing to admit. A chance conversation with a friend led me to trade options full time. Another chance Google search after I was frustrated with selling options led me to ET and the rest is history.
I have at home but outside in backyard hobby aquaponic ponds. I also have resident friendly but wild in nature frogs who live and hide among the ponds and plants. Late last year in one go they produced several hundred tadpoles which over-ran my exiting small quantity of fish. Long story short, the frogs eat the tadpoles, only a few left now, some have become baby frogs, but those surviving, was only luck and chance through large numbers that allowed them to escape. Strangely the frogs are not eating the fish.
Maybe that is why we need to entice more people to trade? There is safety in number. Fish don't compete with frogs for food, other frogs do.