LOL, the signals that I have always thought were juicy, lose and the ones I think were sure losers would be huge winners. So I have come to the conclusion is this, the "market" knows who I am and is going to show itself to me hoping that I only take the feel good trades and not take the other ones. Well, after 100,000 trades plus in my lifetime, I don't like any of them, so I take them all. Each trade in theory is 50/50, what you do in it after getting in and your experience changes the percentages.
Excellent, thanks. This is very interesting and I think you're onto something.. Could you please elaborate on this a little bit more?
NoDoji made a post on CL Redux recently... I'll post it below. For me, I think the issue is in the area of confidence. I also think that in my own case I lack confidence because I've not taken the time to put in some of the fundamental building blocks necessary to build that confidence. In NoD's post she is saying that it takes a few months to build this skill, another few months to build another skill. Alas... I see I tried to short cut that process. Why prove a setup or pattern? They are in books, Al Brooks has them and he's a guru. Look no further. So I can skip over the months to prove that. Backtest MFA & MEA? I can do that in a few hours. Develop trading rules? They are in a book. Why repeat what is already done? Hey, I just cleared another couple of months work. I"m ready to go. Whoo hoo. And so on. To be more specific... A big part of your question has to do with trade management. I think Ammo was exactly right in his response, but how do you get there? I never grasped the concept until reading NoD's post how ALL trade management depends on the MFE & MAE that comes out of how ***I myself*** make entires at the hard right edge. No one can do this for me and you can't get it out of a book. Backtesting MFE/MAE really did me little good. I keep scratching my head over why I put together strings of winning days, then suddenly I get off track. One way to describe that is lack of confidence and I stop taking winning trades, or only take a little piece of a winning trade. I am looking at my lack of confidence as I short changed myself on developing my own data for MFE"s & MAE's BASED ON ENTRIES I SEE AND TAKE at the hard right edge. Not based on backtesting. As a further hint, I've stopped placing even paper trades and instead am taking screen shots of where I'd enter... the screen shot proves it. Then I go back later and put in the MFE/MAE. I find that putting in a stop and target somehow limits my ability to clearly see the chart movements. You get the drift. Hope this helps. Sorry about the length of this post, but you are getting two for one! here is NoD's post: (and thank you NoD for saying it again and agian until it soaks in!) Here is my cautionary message to anyone wanting to trade CL intraday because you've looked at those charts and seen all those nice price swings and you think of how much money you could make trading just a few contracts. Take the time to dissect every price swing of .30 or more every day for at least a couple months worth of days. If you find patterns that lead into these tradable price swings more often than not, and you can recognize them at the hard right edge of price action, then you have the first "gift" necessary for profitable manual trading: pattern recognition skills. Then analyze the max favorable and adverse price excursion (MFE & MAE) using various trade entry methods, for each appearance of the positive expectancy patterns you found. Keep doing this until you end up with what appears to be the potential for net profitable trading setups. If you can do this for a couple months worth of trading days, then you have the second "gift" necessary for profitable trading: work ethic. Next, use the data you collected to set up up rules for trade entry, stop placement, and profit-taking, and apply your rules to simulated live trading for a couple months. Trade every appearance of your chosen setup(s) and manage each trade according to your rules. If you can do this successfully for a couple months, then you have the third "gift" necessary for profitable trading: discipline. Once you obtain sim trading results that are in line with your back test results, trade your plan with the smallest size possible in a live trading account, trading every appearance of your setups and managing each trade according to your rules. If you can do this successfully, then you have the final "gift" necessary for profitable trading: a trader's mindset. If you do attain that level of success, then pay it forward. ADD: It took me waaay more than a couple months to go through each of those steps because I was not "gifted". But I did have a huge work ethic
yeah, or you can just watch it and do what comes naturally My mother use to say, "You aint got the sense you was born with." But my father had faith and said, "Nobody can be as consistently stupid as you have been, even if they are trying." Thank God I had good parents They were both right especially the part about getting as far aways as possible from the sense you was born with but also the part about fading consistency
If you don't want to pass up a successful trade buy the UDOW ETF today, because today is final in the bleeding.
well, that's a strategy, just buy everything when it is down. Works fine unless you get on the wrong side of a trend. Works bad when you buy something that is down and it just sits there. That's the reason it was down in the first place. You'd be surprised how much you can make buying when it is up. Most don't want to do that, because it makes you feel very stupid when you are wrong.
I don't do guess work that is because I have everything down to a science. Have you ever heard of a man name W.D Gann ? They have a life size portrait of him in the New York Stock Exchange and do you know why ? Between me and John W.D Gann we're in the few trading scientist of our own kind. I can nail the trade to the day with my knowledge of Mathematical Geometry and Scientific Vibrations. If you don't believe than follow my trades on ETFS, and prove it out for yourself that this science works. I spent 2.5 years innovating this new concept and I will prove it to you. Be in on the profits with me, and I will show you why today is the bottom in the short term. I am buying before 4:00 Close so you can be in or out this is your call. I have much work planed out through the later stages of the month. All this I can prove to you just follow the trades and make money with me. Its that easy because its following knowledge and science and I do not guess. CL
well that's good, because I can tell you this guessing can wear you out. Sometimes I think I should have just read a book. For every $1000 dollars I made I lost a week off my life expectancy. That's why when people get old, they stop trading and start worrying about how long they are going to live. I was doing just fine with that Gann, then I got too senile to remember what wave I was on. After a while, they all look the same.
My problem is my own inner beast. If I trade sim, I nail the trades and excel. Once it's live - I double think my gut feeling and question myself. Funny thing is, it's not even the money part that bugs me the most on a losing trade - its the fear of being wrong and failing. Dad always said "I'm too much brains, not enough balls".
Ah, yes, this sounds familiar. Went thru the same exact issue. A small account will do that however. You gotta act fearless as if you can lose the entire account in one day....and not think twice about it. If you use reasonable stops, that shouldn't happen. I've seen prop traders with that attitude who DIDN'T use stops and they lost their entire account in one week.