markets anticipate, they dont react--hence the folly of any price action fixed system. some folks will never learn.
The market sold off 4% last week. That was a big loss and can only be chalked up to fear of a default. We've slid since July - both numbers and handles - on the end of QE2. I'm not saying the market was wrong, clearly I was. Fundamentally, the trend is down. But I reasoned we'd at least get a 2% pop on the ceiling resolution. Despite that, these are still good levels to get long. Very possible QE3 is around the corner.... Anyway, looking at 1257 handle. It's a big level....
Newsflash Surf.....price action guys have been short SP and Crude today...long Gold. These are the days price action guys live for.
There's nothing bullish about the debt deal though. It's tightened fiscal policy and dollar strengthening. For once fiscal and monetary policy appear to be geared for deflation. We need QE3 to stay afloat and IMO the fed will do it.
No we dont need QE3! QE3 = more inflation, more worthless dollars and just an all around prop job for the economy and markets. Its completely artificial, enough is enough!
Sure there is. A higher ceiling keeps gas in the tank. The actual deal doesn't reduce spending. It only reduces projected spending *increases*. The deficit will still continue to climb, albeit at a slower pace. I think the flagging market is more symptomatic of a extremely weak economy. Agree QE is needed to keep the market at break-even+...
Agreed, except for your point on monetary policy and deflation. The only way they could be more accomodative is dropping the rate on deposits at the fed to 0. Even then banks probably just buy bills, pulling the short end of the curve down to 0 to limit duration risk, since there isn't enough high-quality credit demand. Trying to drive up inflation expecations isn't working; non-discretionary prices are rising much faster than incomes. It's not a money/credit supply problem. It's a demand problem. The fed can't fix that.
We "need" QE3 like a chronic spender needs the limits on his credit card raised. Oh wait, we just did that, too, didn't we?