Parallels between now and 1929 are scary...

Discussion in 'Economics' started by midlifeguy, Aug 17, 2007.

  1. All right then - let's say you're right. At least say something other than "This is the best global economy of my lifetime." WTF?

    Imagine you brought in a pro for something important - whether it's a plumber, surgeon, trial lawyer, whatever - and the guy says nothing? How does that inspire confidence.

    It all comes down to this - you gotta know what to do to be in the big leagues... . People have to know you know what to do and you're on top of it. I still think it's cut rates
    #21     Aug 17, 2007
  2. i`ve been analyzing that very chart for the last 4 weeks......sick,is`nt it?
    i showed it to my neighbor who is a bond trader....he said he has`nt crapped in 3 days.
    #22     Aug 17, 2007
  3. We're at the point where the damage has already been done and lower interest rates won't be the panacea that people think it will be, unless they are completely cut to near zero.

    There is too much debt in the hands of deadbeat homeowners and deadbeat companies for slightly lower interest rates to suddenly stimulate more borrowing. The LBO market seized when crappier and crappier companies where issuing more and more debt with more covenants and provisions and the market balked; similar to the subprime situation. Slightly lower rates won't do squat to the finances of those companies.

    So how will all this be eventually resolved? Either A, things get really bad and we pretty much clean house and there's a shitload of defaults OR B, we lower rates dramatically reducing the servicing burden of consumers and companies making them de-facto more healthy and refinancings will start this whole game anew, albeit changes by congress will certainly make the next debt boom less vigorous, particularly in the subprime space.

    But in any case, I put my money on possibility B.
    #23     Aug 17, 2007
  4. Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut the overnight target interest rate to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent this year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists forecast in a research note today.

    The Fed will reduce the rate by at least 0.25 point on or before policy makers meet on Sept. 18, according to the note."


    Now if we can get rid of these nutballs arguing Jesus doesn't want FNM FRE loan book opened...

    Get those credit markets open. Now!
    #24     Aug 17, 2007
  5. zdreg


    i explained what could be said. you can think that you are on the right side because trump etc agrees with you in their public statements. history has shown time again that actions done in haste just increase the pain later on.

    all this screaming by traders which will be following by screaming from politicians about flooding the money supply does not make it the correct advice.

    old cliche - the piper has to be paid and he will be paid.

    you got your wish! rates were cut.
    #25     Aug 17, 2007
  6. Whammo Boys!
    #26     Aug 17, 2007
  7. that spike missed some resting GTC sells by 7 ticks....daily TL..met by sellers......hmmm
    #27     Aug 17, 2007
  8. It was nice.Just at the right place to capitalise on yesterday's bounce off the _____ .Very nicely done all round I think.pricked any panic.
    #28     Aug 17, 2007