Paradox?

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Urkel, Sep 18, 2006.

  1. gbos

    gbos

    If you have hundreds of thousands of independent random bets with a small proven mathematical edge to profit from during a year time-period then the cumulative result is very far from random. The only real danger for a casino is an unforeseen non-gambling related event -maybe a fire :).
     
    #11     Sep 19, 2006
  2. What constantly amazes me...
    Is that even fairly intelligent and educated people do not understand...
    That there is MINIMAL difference between the financial markets and casinos.

    To be specific... I am talking about short term trading... not long term investing.

    Both industries exist for the EXACT same purpose...
    To ** transfer wealth ** from unsophisticated dreamers to the industry.

    In a casino the house typically has a 2-5% edge because the rules of the game are set against you...
    A broker has a very similar edge because he charges you to play...
    Almost identical to a "hourly seat charge" in a poker room.

    But the con is different:

    Casinos emphisize how much fun you will have...

    The securities industry floods the world with slick propaganda...
    Implying that any idiot can "beat the market"...
    Which means in reality...
    Any idiot can ** take money away ** from pro traders like me...
    While constantly paying your broker to play the game.

    95% of cannot take money away from ME in this zero sum game...
    (And short term trading is a zero sum game)...
    Just like you cannot take money away from Johnny Chan in a long poker game.
    That's why 95% of you have ** zero chance ** to win in the long run as a day trader...
    Because the top 5% end up with all the money in ALL zero sum games.

    For me...
    It's very easy to differentiate between the Pros and the Pretenders... here at ET.
     
    #12     Sep 21, 2006
  3. Urkel

    Urkel

    now this is getting interesting...
     
    #13     Sep 21, 2006