Cliff Notes: Me: Have blown 2 accounts over the last 10 years, trading dumb. Did well on 1 prop account trading full time, but realized I wasn't ready to settle down to trading full time. Currently working for the US government, pursuing what is a very important personal goal. Don't have time to trade, but plan to trade full time in the future. The purpose of this journal is to have a place for me to post my daily analysis, and to maybe have some good discussion from others. My style of analysis is to replay the market bar by bar and try to pick major swing entries. After I have done that I will look back at the whole day and see how I would have liked to have traded it in hindsight. The goal is to have my bar by bar analysis look as close as possible to the hindsight analysis. My style is price action/Al Brooks methodology, shooting for .30 or more moves on the SPY. Timeline on when I will go live is unclear. It could be up to 10 years depending on how my career develops. Criteria for going live: 1. 50k trading capital. 2. An income or savings that makes it so I have no need to withdraw for at least 1 year. 3. A schedule that allows me to trade without distraction at least 3 days a week. 4. Consistant profitability papertrading. I may not post here all the time. Sometimes I will be gone for long periods. In summary, this will be a boring journal, with a looooooooong timeframe on when real money action will begin.
In case the question is asked I have no interest in swing or position trading. Here are my reasons: I like to be flat by the end of the day so I'm not obsessed with markets. That bugs my wife. I have an unpredictable schedule that would not allow me to monitor positions the way I would like. I have my risk capital tied up in a small business I run online and my wife can take it over when I have to travel. It provides a much better ROI than trading could. I realized after my previous trading experiences that I would be much better off running this business instead of trading prematurely.
I was off today so was watching the market while I worked on some biz stuff. Had the luxury of picking a couple trades as they unfolded. What I saw. 1. Breakout pullback long, triggered off 2 IB's(inside bars) on the 1 min chart right on yesterdays high. 2. Trendline breakdown short, triggered off outside bar and low 2 short signal. 3. Trendline breakout, no entry signal. 4. High 2 long at EMA on a trend day, also an IB on retest of the swing low after a trendline break. Beyond textbook long. On the retest of the high, price turned into barb wire(chop) and i decided I wouldn't look for any further entries. What I missed. The last trendline break I have drawn, follows a 2nd failure to put in signifigant new highs. There was a pullback entry. Although I don't think I would consider it high odds because that chop will likely act as a magnet, limiting downside. It has created a double top of sorts, so a breakdown out of the afternoon range could have some decent downside. But on a whole I would consider the mornings action quite sufficient and wouldn't mind missing an end of day move if it happens. The inside bar after bar 3 was a potential short entry. It looks low odds though considering the days action and the fact that we should be looking for a long entry just a little below it.