PANIC and the US Dollar.

Of course the doomsday scenario could happen but if it does everyone goes down, the euro isn't going to offer any safety.

The major economies of europe are among the weakest of any industrialized nation on the planet.

Yes they dont' have large deficits but if the US goes into crisis mode the eurozone will be an absolute disaster considering they have almost no domestic demand and make all their money from the United States consumer.

I won't pretend to be as astute as you on the subject, I'm just giving you my opinion but the ECB, France and Germany have proven time and time again they are totally unable to put together any sort of plan to help themselves. They clearly don't get it.

 

"almost no domestic demand"? Now that's an interesting one...

 

Well I, for that matter, would love to see the prediction come true that AAPL goes to $200,- before the end of 2006...

 

I read Ricardo's retort about his predictions. Truly humorous and a little sophomoric.

Before I rip I will say I learned some fascinating things about slavery from his article on a website. Ricardo has researched some interesting things.

But, he is a very conflicted. He is a socialist, marxist who wants to be recognized. He wishes the world to know he is from Brazils "Greatest Family". This conflict is manifested in this thread.

He chastises someone on a trading board for not willing to having the courage to put his predictions in writing.

Could this be any more humorous.

Anybody who trades for a living knows prediction are like assholes, every dope has one. We all know from watching the markets that if you are the type to make predictions -- Ralph Acompora taught us to make them big predictions in case they hit.

But the really funny thing is he thinks he has the courage of his convictions because he put his ass on the line in writing.

That is just about the funniest thing I have ever read on trading website.


My South American friend from Teaneck, if you had any courage at all you would step up and pet the pony. Then and only then can you talk about courage and conviction. And then if you are not privately happy with the cash you made because you had balls, you could always post a screen shot.

People with with conviction do not predict they trade.

 

I had previously stated, to you, in a previous thread that I was slightly bearish on the dollar. That is not an opinion that I have any amount of confidence in. "Balls" have nothing to do with making market calls to within specific ranges. Specific ranges signify some amount of confidence which is typically backed up by some sort of quantitative analysis. Imagine an engineer who said that the bridge he built could hold 15000 tons because he "had heard that concrete was really strong." That is what your posts sound like. Does this give you some conception about why a post like yours would be taken off the economics board and end up in Chit Chat.

Regarding the second part of your quote, I am a trader, and predictions don't bother me at all. I tend to think the dollar will weaken to some extent, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion, and I think chances are good that you will be wrong when you make a call that is as far outside the market as yours is.

 

As can be seen by Germany and France's explosive job growth and GDP.

 

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December 9, 2005

SouthAmerica: This thread about "Panic and the US dollar" must be a very uncomfortable subject to many members on this message board - Last night as soon as I posted my reply to the other people’s questions on this subject they switched this thread from the “Economics Forum” to the “Chit Chat Forum”

I guess the reasons for the coming decline of the US dollar – is not considered an economic matter by the manager of this message board - or this is a subject that they want to avoid any discussions just in case.

.

 

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TrendBert: Not meaning to insult anyone, but how often have your predictions been wrong?


*****

December 9, 2005

SouthAmerica: I don’t make a lot of predictions – only when I am sure that the outcome has a very high probability of coming to past.

That I can remember only once I made a prediction and it did not materialized.

I thought that if Lula became the president of Brazil in 2002 – Brazil would be in real trouble – and we would have a similar economic collapse as the one they had in Argentina.

I did not count on Lula choosing a good economic team in the first place – and that his economic team would be making the necessary hard decisions and not give away to political pressures.

I still surprised about that one – The Brazilian economic team have been acting as the economic team of a country of the first world – I can’t say the same for Alan Greenspan and what has been happening in the US during that same period.


*****


TrendBert: I am not saying that there are no big problems and even bigger challenges facing the US economy and the economies of many other countries as well. I am not saying that some, many or perhaps all of your predictions will come true at some point in the future. You make some very valuable and wise observations. But the thing is, if you wait long enough anything that is predictable will at some point in time happen. We might even see Chief Chimp GWB joining Al-Qaeda... who knows what the future holds?


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SouthAmerica: If you followed the market closely then you know that I could have made my prediction regarding the coming collapse of the US stock market at various points in the go-go stock market of the 1990’s.

But I did not. – I made the prediction at the end of October 1999, very close to the turning point. And when I made the prediction many people said the same that you are saying - that perhaps all of your predictions would come true at some point in the future.


******


sputdr: Of course the doomsday scenario could happen but if it does everyone goes down, the euro isn't going to offer any safety.

Yes they dont' have large deficits but if the US goes into crisis mode the eurozone will be an absolute disaster considering they have almost no domestic demand and make all their money from the United States consumer.


******


SouthAmerica: It will be a hard time for everybody, since the majority of the economies of the industrialized world today are more interconnected than ever before.

But the hard times will not be as bad in Europe as it will be in the United States because of the European countries protection of its labor force – it is harder to layoff workers in Europe than in the US – and that make the European recessions more palatable since they keep the maximum amount of people working as long as they can. (and these workers make money and have some kind of purchasing power as compared with the US that when you lose your job you are in real trouble – mainly if you have a long recession, or even an economic depression.)

European recessions are much easier on its work force than in the United States.

The difference is in Europe they treat workers like a human being – in the US American corporations treat them like a short term useful thing and shortly after that as a disposable trash.


******


davidLynch2000: I had previously stated, to you, in a previous thread that I was slightly bearish on the dollar. That is not an opinion that I have any amount of confidence in. "Balls" have nothing to do with making market calls to within specific ranges.

Regarding the second part of your quote, I am a trader, and predictions don't bother me at all. I tend to think the dollar will weaken to some extent, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion, and I think chances are good that you will be wrong when you make a call that is as far outside the market as yours is.


*****


SouthAmerica: If you did read my articles and postings then you know that there are very few economists and people on Wall Street that I highly respect their opinions. Warren Buffett is one of these people – and he has made a major bet (in the billions of US dollars) against the US dollar and he has been saying a lot of the same things that I have. I am glad that someone of his stature is in the same wavelength that I am on this subject.

You said: “I don't think it's a foregone conclusion,” regarding the decline of the US dollar – I agree with you because of the price of oil and the amount of petrodollars windfall in 2006 is a wild card – we don’t know how much petrodollars will be generated and where the people holding these petrodollars will invest their profits.

But Ben Bernake will keep increasing the Fed Funds rate to at least 5 percent in 2006 – after that the international market will react accordingly to expectations and most likely we will see the US dollar start its declining trend on world markets.


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Europe is larger than Germany and France. A lot bigger. Never been to school?

 

That does it. SA has me convinced that I need to leave the US and move to Europe. Any ideas on where the best locale is?