. December 8, 2005 SouthAmerica: Here are my predictions for the year 2006 and beyond for the US economy: 1) The US dollar should finally decline during the year 2006 at least to the range of: US$ 1.50 - US$ 1.60 equal 1 Euro. Many reasons prevented the US dollar from its decline against the Euro in 2005, including: 1) The change in US tax law gave a large tax break to American companies for them to repatriate billions and billions of profits that these companies kept outside the US to avoid paying US taxes. 2) The international market did beat down the Euro because some European countries voted no to the new European Constitution (basically, just a temporary set back for the Euro.) 3) The Euro had a further decline when the Italian finance minister made some silly comments about Italy giving up the Euro and going back to their old currency. 4) OPEC countries used a large portion of their petrodollars windfall to park it temporarily on US government securities until they decide where to invest this money for the long-term. After Ben Bernake, the new Fed Chairman stops raising the Fed Funds rate in 2006 - when the rate reaches the 5 percent level - The US dollar finally will start its fast decline against the Euro and other currencies. 2) The price of Gold should increase in 2006 - from the current price of $515 per oz to a new high of around $ 600 per oz. 3) The stock market should decline in the next 3 years in the range from 30 to 50 percent from current levels. (There are many reasons for that decline to become reality.) Market closings for December 7, 2005: Dow Jones 10,800 Nasdaq 2,250 S&P 500 1,260 Market will trade in the following range in the next 3 years: Dow Jones from 7,300 to 5,200 Nasdaq from 1,400 to 1,000 S&P 500 from 800 to 600 4) The real estate bubble will burst in the near future when interest rates continues rising to higher levels. Housing should lose in value from 25 to 40 percent depending where the real estate is located. 5) To stabilize the US dollar decline, the US Federal Reserve will need to raise the Fed Funds rate to at least the 5 percent level by the end of 2006. As the US Federal Reserve continues increasing the Fed Funds rate, the US economy growth rate will decline accordingly; in turn helping the implosion process of the US economy. 6) Outsourcing American jobs to foreign lands will help the implosion process of the American economy. It is open season on American jobs, and millions of American jobs will continue leaving the US for cheaper labor markets. 7) This trend will continue - Companies of every size will transfer the responsibility of their pension plans to the US government. Most of the people now receiving pensions from these companies will receive a very large cut on their pension benefits when the pension responsibility is transferred to the US government: Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation's (PBGC) These large cuts in pension income will result in a reduction in spending by pensioners, and in another important negative trend to affect the US economy in the coming years. (We are talking about millions of retired people here in the US.) Without taking in consideration the US governmentâs usual published misinformation, the real rate of unemployment in the United States should be in the range of 13 to 15 percent, not the fictitious number published every month by the Labor Department of around 5.0 percent. The unemployment rate will increase drastically in the coming years, as the US economy continues to deteriorate on its race to the bottom. NOTE: Above are the predictions that I made right after George W. Bush was re-elected. Most of you think that they are silly predictions, and full of gloom and doom. Do yourself a favor make a copy of these predictions and check them again by November 2008 (The new presidential election here in the US), and you will see that I was right in the nose. I am so confident about my predictions that I am putting them in writing for entire world to see it, as I did in the past. (And I did identify myself, and signed my real name) ************** SouthAmerica: These were the predictions I made last year on November 5, 2004. 1) The price of Gold did reach the target price of $ 500 per oz in 2005. 2) Regarding the Fed Funds rate I wrote the following: âTo stabilize the US dollar decline, the US Federal Reserve will need to raise the Fed Funds rate to a level between 4 and 5 percent by the end of 2005.â But the prediction on interest rate reached only the lower end of the range of my prediction. Right after the US election in November 3, 2004, I wrote an article regarding the US economy as follows: November 5, 2004 âEconomic Forecast for the US Economy for the Year 2005 and Beyond.â By: Ricardo C. Amaral If you have been reading most of my articles, then you know that I am very pessimistic about the direction that the US economy is taking. In my opinion we are heading for a worldwide depression, probably even worse than the depression of the 1930's. The US economy is heading south and it is picking up speed. The Bush administration's policies are a sure bet for a new economic depression. I have no doubts about that. We have a very weak economic team running economic policy in the country today. Here are my predictions for the year 2005 and beyond for the US economy: 1) The US dollar should decline further during the year 2005 at least to the range of: US$ 1.50 - US$ 1.60 equal 1 Euro. 2) Gold should increase in price from the current $440 price to around to $ 500. 3) The stock market should decline in the next 3 to 4 years in the range from 30 to 50 percent from current levels. (There are many reasons for that decline to become reality.) Market closings for November 5, 2004: Dow Jones 10,388 Nasdaq 2,039 S&P 500 1,166 Market will trade in the following range in the next 3 to 4 years: Dow Jones from 7,300 to 5,200 Nasdaq from 1,400 to 1,000 S&P 500 from 800 to 600 4) The real estate bubble will burst in the near future when interest rates starts rising to higher levels. Housing should lose in value from 25 to 40 percent depending where the real estate is located. (The actual price of real estate will decline in real terms, since inflation is very low) 5) To stabilize the US dollar decline, the US Federal Reserve will need to raise the Fed Funds rate to a level between 4 and 5 percent by the end of 2005. As the US Federal Reserve increases the Fed Funds rate at this fast rate, the US economy growth rate will decline accordingly; in turn helping the implosion process of the US economy. 6) Outsourcing American jobs to foreign lands will help the implosion process of the American economy. It is open season on American jobs, and millions of American jobs are leaving the US for cheaper labor places. Americans want equality, in terms of wages, equality is at the 50 cents per hour without company benefits. In the future, Americans will get what they are wishing for. 7) Companies of every size will transfer the responsibility of their pension plans to the US government. Most of the people now receiving pensions from these companies will receive a very large cut on their pension benefits when the pension responsibility is transferred to the US government: Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation's (PBGC) These large cuts in pension income will result in a reduction in spending by pensioners, and in another important negative trend to affect the US economy in the coming years. (We are talking about millions of retired people here in the US.) It is pathetic to see a country such as the United States to decline economically so fast. But gross government mismanagement will do it every time. Without taking in consideration the US governmentâs usual published misinformation, the real rate of unemployment in the United States should be in the range of 13 to 15 percent, not the fictitious number published every month by the Labor Department of around 5.6 percent. The unemployment rate will increase drastically in coming months and years, as the US economy continues to deteriorate on its race to the bottom. After reading one of my articles someone asked me: "Are you able to suggest financial refuge for those of us who are small landowners and investors?" All I can say is that the risks are too high here in the US today. I would not invest any money in the stock market. The housing bubble is ready to burst. The only place that makes sense to park your money is in U.S. Government securities - "TIPS" Below is brief information about these US government securities. Better safe than sorry. Cash is king when the S⦠hits the fan. If you have cash on hand, after a major market decline, then you can pick up the pieces for a fraction of its previous price. NOTE: Above are the predictions that I made right after George W. Bush was re-elected. Most of you think that they are silly predictions, and full of gloom and doom. Do yourself a favor make a copy of these predictions and check them again by November 2008 (The new presidential election here in the US), and you will see that I was right in the nose. I am so confident about my predictions that I am putting them in writing for entire world to see it, as I did in the past. (And I did identify myself, and signed my real name)
Typical bearish prediction. Every year they foretell the upcoming decline in the economy and markets. 9 out of 10 years they are wrong, sit on the sidelines and miss opportunities to make money. Once a decade or so they're right. Then they all puff out their chests and say, "Look how smart we are."
Do you have some kind of economic model, or are you pulling these numbers our of your ass? -Neo --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market will trade in the following range in the next 3 to 4 years: Dow Jones from 7,300 to 5,200 Nasdaq from 1,400 to 1,000 S&P 500 from 800 to 600 4) The real estate bubble will burst in the near future when interest rates starts rising to higher levels. Housing should lose in value from 25 to 40 percent depending where the real estate is located. (The actual price of real estate will decline in real terms, since inflation is very low)
This might take 15 pages for him to admit it again, so I'll help. He pulls all his numbers out of his ass. There is no quantitative basis for anything he says. He doesn't bother considering any facts that are contradictory to his world view. He is neither an economist or a historical writer... closer to a crazed evangelist. He is certainly not a trader, or at the very least, he is not trading the ideas he is promoting. Feel free to read the previous thread he started regarding his idea of who the best replacement for Alan Greenspan would be. All the confirmation of these facts will be there.
Twin Deficits : Unsustainable Consumer (debt) Spending: Unsustainable Endless wars funded by Taxpayer Debt: Unsustainable Real wage Growth: Marginal Real Estate Bubble: Unsustainable Job growth due to Real estate Bubble: Unsustainable All these factors equal to Slow down in U.S. GDP growth ( as spurious as the numbers are, still have to use some metrics yoy) Slow down in U.S. economy = slowdown in Chinese export oriented manufacturing economy = slowdown of Chinese economic growth. Hence: Buy Gold : Target 625 ( within 18 months) Short Crude: Target low 40 to mid 50's (within 18 months (?), depends on Indian and Japanese economic growth ) Short SPX: Target 1000 (within 24 months)