GGSAE, part of my trade management is to size according to underlying volatility, so this pair has less size on than the others due to volatility. Thanks Sky, not sure what you mean re opening gaps since i only put my trades on in the last 30mins of the trading day where prices are more stable and liquidity is ample.
Okay so the open loss is more or less insignificant overall? Also wondering why you put positions on in the last 30 minutes.
It's the biggest open loss I have atm, but yes because of the lower trade size it's not as significant as it could be. I put positions on in the last 30minutes of the day because as oppose to the opening period prices are more stable, spreads are tighter, liquidity is ample and it creates consistency in my trading. Not saying you can't find good entry opportunities throughout the day, i'm sure there's plently, just its always been my personal trading choice to execute trades at the close, same with my position trading.
Umm I should tell you i have that exact opposite position with FCL and MEE instead of ACI. You do realize CNX is the most over-valued in the sector and lowered it's forecast today?
GGSAE, yes i realise. I'm playing the technicals on this one. Would be good if we both could profit, time will tell. What's your holding period?
CNX had guidance today...Dont know how you view that, but I guess its better then putting the position on before today. I view guidance the same as earnings when it comes to pairs.
johnny what's your average gain for the winners and loss for the losers so far? having a high probability is great, but it's difficult to tell the whole picture without knowing the actual gain/loss numbers. thanks
reho, i know, i'm betting on a high correlation and technicals with this pair. newguy, my losses were 3.04% & 6.01% of the trade value, avg winner is 3.72% of trade value. trade size/value is relative to pair volatility.
I was reviewing your ROK/WY trade. I'm trying to figure out if you are calculating correlation by raw prices or returns of prices. I don't understand what in the real world this correlation represents. Do you construct factor models to regress against the indices and then take the correlation of the resulting residuals? If there's no news driven activity on the two stocks, how do we know that the correlation between the two stocks isn't just due to moving with the major indexes? Can we review your reasons for this trade, what your signal was, when and why? Just as a learning exercise? If the tone of my post sounds critical, pardon me -- it's not. I'm trying to understand your methodology.