Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Pa(b)st Prime, Mar 29, 2007.

  1. Instead of being in a great mood with these grain and bond profits, I find myself in a bitter mood.

    I was unable by less than a cent on an additional 10 corn buys on Tuesday. That folks is turning into a 20k unable. Also I paid the high Wednesday for 10 bonds. I never got repositioned so there's another 13 g's not sitting in my account.

    It's IMPERATIVE that I not let this effect my trading to-morrow.

    Positions entering Monday:

    S 11 USM (ZB)
    L 7 Cotton
    L 10 Corn
    S 5 SK 780 puts
     
    #71     Apr 8, 2007
  2. BTW: I'm in such a volatile mood I hope Tony S. kills someone with his bare hands tonight. :cool:
     
    #72     Apr 8, 2007
  3. 30mins to go. Good luck this week. You might want to ratio some short gamma against your spot position.
     
    #73     Apr 8, 2007
  4. Thanks bro. On the Corn I'm all ears :D if mo slows to sell May calls and clip a nickel in premo.

    I'm going to be all about some backspreads as well. I need coaching on those.

    Bonds is probably the best place for some serious premo collection BUT as you'll see I'm infected as a perma-bear on Bonds and it's awfully hard for me to do anything that'll cut my -d's.

    One of my truths, and I think we can benefit from this, I believe this is the dawn of a new age in premium buying. Not blindly of course. We both know that ultimately most options trades have to involve selling liberal amounts of gamma. That's why they exist, eh? I just don't want to get foolish in the midst of what I think are going to be some freight trains.

    Another strat I like and that you know how to implement is the selling of OTM vertical put spreads as a means to pay for OTM calls in select commodities. Flip that shit the other direction in bonds and stocks. The concept of a less noisy "no action" zone is an awesome tool for the directional spec. July Corn provided an AWESOME opp last week. Something like selling 320p-300p vs. a buying SHITLOAD of $4 calls.
     
    #74     Apr 8, 2007
  5. Yeah, I agree vol is cheap in a lot of futures, especially bonds. You\\\'re trading synthetic long calls and puts if you buy vol against your futures positions. Selling some gamma otm to lock some deltas at a decent vol. Of course you may be locked into the futures position if you\\\'re trading the options to lock deltas.

    I wouldn\\\'t go long premium to add deltas to your futures. IMO, pick one or the other. For spec, it\\\'s a good bet to stick to the atm options, especially in the gains. The bull skew is tough to overcome. Makes for a good sale to lock you position at favorable edge.

    The covered risk reversal: You pay for the defined risk in terms of the position debit, but it\'s a nice idea.

    PM or detail your corn position here.
     
    #75     Apr 8, 2007
  6. At least there was some fisticuffs, lol.

    I'm long 10 July from 361 3/4

    Are you saying OTM's in grains are pumped relative to the ATM's.

    Similar to the skew in OTM index puts?
     
    #76     Apr 8, 2007
  7. Right, although the skew is much more pronounced. I don\'t have the quotes for corn options here, but I recall a 2000bp vol-premium on the 20d vs. 50d options last year this time for the front month. Upside skew.
     
    #77     Apr 8, 2007
  8. Wow!!
     
    #78     Apr 8, 2007
  9. I just took a look at the chart on corn, huge trading opportunities.
     
    #79     Apr 8, 2007
  10. My vols are flashing \"NA\" but the 30d outside risk-reversal is trading 4.00 call over put. That\'s nice, but nothing like last year.
     
    #80     Apr 8, 2007