I went the old school way. After I saw the subscribed issue to Final Call laying around I went the diminished capacity route. I'm interested in ratio call spreads in BP. I think it pops but I think 205 is as good as it can get. Give me some ideas!
I'm sitting tight this morning. I'm long Corn and Cotton outright and short some Bean puts. Call me a complacent long. Bonds suck. I'm still short 10 and ever since hitting them for 60k in Dec/Jan which helped launch my "comeback", I've given 28k of that back. I guess I'm testing the 50% fib..........
China Stocks closed at new highs last night..maybe 'special task force' is engineering another selloff... as Easter gift: that could be a bad situation for the Dow and a long for bonds.
Often I'm spread Bernard. I look for breakouts in spreads rather than mean reversion. The most frequent price dislocations are derived from spreaders getting caught. Relationships are tenuous. Most are truly riskarbs. Beans vs. Corn, Bond yields vs. CRB, 2000-01 DJI vs. NAZ, EUR-JY, ect....... Thus while cognizant of stocks (I trade the indices often enough) and flight to quality scenarios, I'm not obsessive about those relationships. There's no "for sure" cause/effect between Shanghai and the T-Bond. It's all hypothetical. Hell it's not even a "for sure" that one can profitably sell the Dow off of China. As we all know Japan's collapse in the 90's kept many globally aware managers out of the U.S. bull whereas the smart guys were short Nikkei vs. longs in America and Europe.
Pa(b)st Prime, Thanks for the input. I will dig a bit about spreads for creating a better scenario for my bond trades. Hope you you are still short with your bond position
Still short. I sold an extra one lot at 110.31 just so I could say I added, lol. Since that 1 lot bond was technically today's trade it means I traded ZERO contracts yesterday. Not often that trigger happy Pabst "sits out" an entire session. S 11 USM (ZB) L 7 Cotton L 10 Corn S 5 SK 780 puts BTW: If anyone thinks that paying 111.18 for that 10 lot I sold at 111.16 isn't bothering me.....I could slit my wrist, lol.
If I remember correctly, when you were stopped at 111.18 there were less than 200 lots traded (even if later on the session, they totaled about 1800). Why don't you use a volume trigger for your stops (so for example you are going to be stopped - transmitting the stop order effectively - only if there are less than 250 lots on the DOM at your stop level)?
A volume trigger, LMAO. No wonder you guys were able to take Europe unscathed and then rise from the ashes as manufacturers of the best engineered automobiles in the world. I'm self congratulatory about just knowing how to place a stop, lol. Certainly when in the pit I used my own volume trigger. Of course that often meant missing the 18's (and the 19's, 20's and 21's ).