Thank's guys! It means a lot. Especially on a night like this when I feel like the world's biggest loozer. Short Swiss. Dollar bulls is a crowded trade. Lotta faders. No one can believe the tipping point toward intervention still awaits. This policy has gone too far. I'm trying to tough it out but I turned a modest options position into a major futures short. Euro's too. Not good. And when I think I took a too soon profit on some Soybean shorts to finance this crap...I want to explode
I feel for you. That European exotic went OTB last night at Midnight, so it paid out. Unfortunately, a lot of guys got caught riding the dollar through their stop after being up 120-150 pips.
I'm with you on that bud. I just got a big kick in the nuts with my Yen and Pound trades. Turned around on me as soon as I closed them out. Shit happens. Just seems to be happening a lot these days. ha ha Hang in there Pabst, you're good to go man. This will be interesting, whatever it is that ends up going down.
Well Reaver, what a long strange trip it's been. I was caught short in a big way on the Swissie ramp up to the ATH last Sunday night. Took a 300 pip loss on 10 stuff. J.C. isn't the only guy crucified in the past week. Fortunately here and there I picked up pennies in ES. Re-shorted a 5 spot Monday and I've got half it back. IMO both stocks and the dollar are on an Oct/1998 fractal. I think long dollars is a strong play for the following reasons. If the short term U.S. economic worst is over then Bernanke is done. BSC would be a fitting bottom eh? Trouble is my technical work is unenthusiastic about the stock rally. I'm also negative on housing/jobs/earnings going forward. I doubt equities are on any sort of perma-bull run but prices ST/IT could improve. It's a very slo-mo recession. If dramatic weakness in data manifests itself shortly then I suspect Bernanke will be able to claim victory in his stare down with Trichet. At some point EuroZone manufacturers-especially the automakers-will persuade the ECB to help the dollar via some remedy. If commodity prices do indeed continue their break then the ECB can justify something stimulative. Helps dollar longs. I have a futures mkt target in the next month of 91 on SF and perhaps 147 on EUR.
Today's sharp rebound in metals along with a hideous day for the dollar makes me realize mean reversion plays in commodities and the dollar might not be as deep as traders expect. It's not like I'm buying Gold futures up at these levels but then again it could be, in a big way, the right thing to do. I'm open to anything. (except in my positioning, lol) As of right now a credible bet is on an American version of 1970's Argentina. Crash/recession? We had it already. 2000-2003. 1550 SPX is what Dow 1000 was in days of yore. I still expect equity weakness but it'll come in quick reactions off strength like we see now. Ya can't ever break till you run out the weak shorts. The American era is over. It's not just the fact that some shadowy character like Obama could be Prez but more the fact that educated, white people support him. If you were the market/logic/life would you reward a nation who said fuck you Ron Paul we want Obama? We've chosen inflationary monetary policies, bloated fiscal exercises, redistribution of wealth from the productive and frugal to the gang, sex and drug addled, we choose aborting fetuses over condemning murderers. We're a nation of gay pride. We're Rome. Someday Islam will eat our lunch. America stands at her darkest moment. Torn apart by class warfare with trusted political and financial institutions marred by greed. The combatants might brown vs. white but the abettors are the clueless white intellectuals who through egotistical ignorance believe they can engineer positive social/economic change while engaged in their own base materialism and desires. Look at the Left's voices. Hollywood. Ultra, extravagant-millionaires like Edwards, Kerry, Kennedy, Gore and Clinton. Even Obama, off a vapid bestseller, lives in one of the most expensive homes on Chicago's South Side. Men of the people. Not exactly a bunch of Mother Theresa's. It's not like Eva Peron is going to resurrect with a microphone screaming" get out of fiat dollars, on September 8th, 2009 you'll be in crisis!!!!!!" It just comes and it comes like this has been coming. Sharp reactions dry up on a dime as longs refuse to puke below perceived value and shorts then see the selling they need to cover off of choked. The smart money doesn't sell because they don't want to lose their position. If you're long gold because you think the end of the world is coming then why sell now? Other factors loom large. What if there's a drought? What if SoFla finally sees a Cat5. Recent assessments estimate the Hayward Fault has a 70% chance of generating a 7.0 in the next 30 years. Comparatively Katrina will look like a backyard party ruined by rain. Where will the money come from if a Florida or California suffers hundreds of billions in losses? Remember, at it's heart America is just one big New Orleans.
Pabst, Damn man that was a good post. Scary thoughts and all, but unfortunately this all seems to be beyond the thought phase. These things are actually taking place right now. I have a feeling us whiteboys are gonna be in for it in the next few years. Like you said, what can we expect as a nation of people who rejected Ron Paul in favor of Obama?
Its so funny watching Ron Paul because everything he says is right. We simply cannot afford what we are doing and we have built a society dependent on asset inflation which is a monetary addiction. Richard Russell has it right. Inflate or die. Clearly the stock market rise in the US and around the world was very much dependent on the massive credit inflation in the housing market.
Come on Pabst, you know McCain is going to be the next president. Doesn't that put you somewhat at ease?
excellent post Pabst.....i`m in total agreement here,unfortunately for our families futures & the futures of we,the people......this is one of the few threads on this site i read.....keep it coming...
Those were my very thoughts when GWB got elected. Both times. Really. I think it is interesting that your comments come at a time while he is still in office.