You're welcome! I luv reading your thoughts also! While I'm at it this is to-morrows strat. I'm short a couple of Gold that's turning into some ok "found money." Just the same I don't want to get caught in a big reversal. The market thinks the new world is going to be Gold vs. worthless script. I'm not going to accept anything other than a trending deflation trade in metals. I can always trade them later. When I figure out a stop I'll try to post it. Stocks; Agh. The only good thing is I'm short a MASSIVE 3 lot in NQ that I never got around to covering Friday. Small traders should be aware that a measly short 3 NQ and 2 GC was a 5k (I mean 8 total!)day today. Easily could go the other way. A shallow victory. It was my intention to buy 10 1300 puts below Friday's lows. Alas last night there was no ES options market. Looked to be open but no bid/offers. I'm beyond bummed. I can buy 20k in premium and sleep like a baby-more than 1 futures and I'm up pacing all night .
I was surprised by the big action on a US holiday - I thought if there would be a big selloff, it would happen Friday or Tuesday. In any case, it looks probable that we'll see that long-awaited capitulation on Tuesday. If it is a big panic/sell-off day (and not another damp squib like friday, or even a rally), and the VIX gets up to 40ish, I would say that will be the ideal time to cover any shorts, exit any puts, and switch to the long side for an anticipated market bottom. I am loathe to make any price predictions, since momentum is king in these situations, but we could maybe hit the summer 2006 lows at 1219 in the S&P. If a panic bottom does occur, I could then see us rallying back to the August 2007 lows around 1375ish within 1-2 weeks. In these situations, most markets become strongly correlated to the S&P. Any market that has been driven by the S&P/risk-aversion in the last week or so, should simply do the opposite of what it did last week. I.e. bonds should selloff since they rallied on the stock weakness, gold/euro/carry trade should bounce back, vol should collapse, growth stocks & financials should rally hardest whilst defensive underperform etc. Bear this in mind if you have nice winners in any of these correlated positions, or if you exited to weather the storm. For example, I'm going to be looking to buy some gold tomorrow on any crash spillover.
Im looking for some strength in the dollar for a little bit just like august and then the dollar decline becomes disorderly. Bonds are going to be in trouble
sounds great....lets get ready to rock and rolla'''''...whatever i do either way it's going to be big....but this might change tomm morning...keep u posted
Geezuz....sounds like everybody and their brother "nailed" it. LOL! I love being in the company of the smart money. OldTrader
You couldn't get nailed in woodshop. You couldn't get nailed at the bunny ranch holding a fistful of 100's.
On sunday Jan 13th, 2008 (with the S&P over 1400), I emailed Pabst the following: "I see the S&P falling to 1300 w blood on the street this month. The pattern thats setting up here looks like 2 failures at 1425, and now lower ahead. The 2 sticks at 1425 usually makes for a good top pattern." Pabst, you have my blessing to corroborate this. In the subsequent week, I've added +10% and more to my already large account. A sequence of events on ET forced me to take my opinions private. So good luck everyone, and don't say I didn't warn everyone, over and over, that the S&P was putting in a major long term top at the old 2000 highs. I believe I started 3-4 threads in trading warning of this massive S&P double top. I nailed it, and will now humbly take my thoughts elsewhere. Bye bye.