ok pabst, if you do not already know (does it even matter?) i have been an avid reader/fan of yours for years following your logic (but i hold cutten's view regarding his last post). i was a 50 lot short call futures option holder going into last week being bearish. i thought i would take a couple of points and close, not 90%! i saw the market over valued/ bought , etc looking at things using my own macro system. but i also see in human nature when things are booming or busting, they see it as continuing. of course that is flawed thinking (proven by history). yes, tech is holding us up; but there will be no crash either. the credit crisis is bad,(i am also in the construction industry) seeing on a daily basis the slowdown. when the mkt went down in 2000, i saw a lot of the money go into housing et al. it may now flow back to the market. i just believe there are so many variables that even the most exhaustive studies do not see other meaningful events that can effect the market. ( see vn!) although you see such clear signs of the market crashing, i see things differently.
For starters, I've always respected both your views and decorum so I'm QUITE flattered that you visit this journal. Believe me, I'm not at all "convinced" of a coming crash. I'm merely short hoping for a crash. My work has superb support on Friday's lows. I may decide Sunday night to completely hedge my short deltas. Or if the market trades lower I may possess greater evidence that a smash is upon us. I've discussed why I'm bearish. The #1 reason with me is ALWAYS technicals. IMO the action (and it's measurable) of this year in SPX has been uncanny to the 2002-2003 lows. Also there's some funky stuff involving 97/99 that I'll post in a video link as soon as I produce it. Reason's to be bullish? Zillions. We're on good support. An accommodative Fed meets in days. The dollar is back on lows giving U.S. share prices an aura of Argentinean cheapness. Earnings releases could take a turn for the better. Key components in NDX should continue higher. If any/all of those reasons are bona fide then it'll print on the tape in the form of higher prices. Higher prices will induce Pabst as well as thousands of other weak shorts to do what we've learned to do so well the past 5 years. Capitulate. Until I see price improvement there's no reason for me to be a buyer unless of course I see lower prices worth responding to. I'll print those levels later. In these environments it's important to not be a trader. It's too easy to lose your position. How many times Friday do you think I wanted to reel in some delta's on a 30 something ES board? Patience and conviction are both needed. Is being short the right trade? Probably not. Is being long the right trade? Absolutely not. There's a time for all seasons......
dollar trading volume is at the same levels as in 2000. The whole ssytem is about fast money and trading. Investment is dead. At some we are going to see a global crash.
No Cutten. I got out some time in late June or early July. I did really well on the trade and could have bought them back cheaper but I've been too busy getting killed in other stuff....
Geez, the week hasn't even started and Pabst and I are already up $$$ this week !! This thread will produce the greatest ideas in ET history this week. Anyone following should make at least 5% to 10% this week alone. That's my modest goal !
Hey Pabst, look at that perfect double top at 30,000 on the heng seng or whatever it's called. That's a textbook, picture perfect double top and "down goes the hang seng, down goes the hang seng!" (said in Howard Cosell voice)
The only Chinese shit I touch is Orange Beef. But yes I have some good measured resistance in some of Asian indices.
Late 2008 isn't that far away. Anticipation may support the market now. Also, H-Omen is also only a probability indicator that works better medium-term than short-term. So many bears right now. A 1000-point drop feels right in the current context but it seems too easy. The Fed sees the danger too. 1987 again? Maybe, but anticipated disasters often never materialize simply because they're anticipated.
I have a real "blue ribbon" special for later today to try to extend my streak to 3 for 3 ! I traded similar $$ quantities of IBM & MMM last week and those went well, so any trades made this week will be 2X the size of last weeks IBM and MMM trades.That's right, time to press and double up each trade!