After reading your last two posts a few times I've had an epiphany of sorts. You're right, even as a "position trader" I'm a quasi scalper. If I was short a lesser amount of Bonds I would have stayed with a looser stop. However now you have me wondering if one isn't better served by micro-managing profit protection. I'm cognizant that I need not outguess the market but rather anticipate what stupid thing I might do next. To wit: I'm bearish bonds. However I know that Bonds are capable of turning good at any time. Thus I think it's prudent since I'm overtrading a bit-to use scaled trailing stops. Because I'm a bear and by nature an aggressive trader I know I'll have no hesitation in reestablishing my shorts if I lose my position at bad prices. On the other hand I don't want to freeze with 20 Bonds on in some huge flight to quality move. It was a pretty sweet feeling Friday when bonds printed 112 for me to know I was flat at an average of a half point lower than there. (How freakin' ironic is it that Friday's high was the AVERAGE PRICE of my position entering the day: S @112.08 and 111.24) If I'd had full boat on at a scratch I probably would've hesitated. These days hesitations are going to become lethal. When iniating I'm going to keep my max size in everything other than Cotton at 5's and be a bit looser. To-morrow OT I'll post some of Dennis's position sizing instructions to the Turtles. I need to work out some calculations on ATR's in a few markets.
That's could be quite interesting hearing of position sizing from a scalper that keeps overnight positions! It's a good situation to develop some original ideas.
For now: Staying short bonds, semi-worried about my Soybean puts and ready to puke some Cotton on new lows.
While ET was down (I tried to post it in real time) I bought 5 SK at 757 and got out of 3 at 764 and 2@ 767. I'm still short 5 puts. I'm itching to sell some more bonds but I'll wait to see if they can break down out of this horseshit range.
My fear early was that Beans would do what Wheat wound up doing, that is break 20 cents on air. But after I saw Beans hold up pretty well with Wheat and Cotton tanking I figured the least line of resistance in Beans would be higher if and when W and CT stabilized.
I haven't traded yet today. Open positions: S 5 SK puts @ 20 cents S 15 USM (ZB) 5-111.10 and 10-111.17 L 5 May Cotton and 2 July I'm sticking with CT and the Bonds with wide stops. If Beans trade in the mid 780's I'll cover my puts. I'm looking to be a very aggressive buyer of Corn basis 3.62 1/2 in May.