I was on the front line in '87 and '97. Eerily similar. IMO a 1000pt day is a magnet. Any day now. BTW: My big claim to fame...
Guys just did a video on the Hindenburg Omen I will still trade by my indicators, and try to be netural with no bias. BUT !!!!!!!! http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=TradePilotPro Take Care, Joe B.
you're Jiang Zemin's ass? Or Hunter Thompson? J/K Used to hang with Hunter at Woody Creek Tavern back in the day. Very cool dude....mean temper thought.
A friend of mine was just telling me earlier about this book. http://www.amazon.com/Gonzo-Hunter-S-Thompson/dp/0978607600 Just the fact Doc that people are laying out 3-400 bucks for that stuff tells me we gotta crash. IMO, sentiment is and becomes too bearish for a slow, grinding correction. Pure and simple the shorts outnumber the amount of long shares they can dislodge. The fundamentals and technicals are in place for a buyers strike of proportion. That get's shorts like moi' off the hook. When I see the following I get "all in" bearish. 1. An inexplicable fall in Treasury yields. Sure stocks are heavy but a two and a half point rally in ZB this week seems like preemptive flight to quality buying. Somethings brewing. Bonds also did this the two sessions prior to Feb.27. 2. High ISE c/p (ISE is calls vs. puts not vica versa) followed by an extreme low reading. IOW's call buyers have been in force since Oct.5. to levels of July enthusiasm. However today put buyers suddenly emerged in force. Into a relatively benign market environment, eh? Why? 3. The wall of worry is gone. As we all know there's always news perceived as bad that's actually good. A cheap dollar has helped shares and higher energy signaled a thriving global economy for multinationals. Hence people who sold either stocks or bonds from 2002-2007 off either "bad" event were toast. Now all of sudden the "pundits" have discovered the benefits of what was once thought of as bearish. They're late to the party. They are now the fade. (although I look for oil to be $15 lower in 6 weeks and the $ to be 139) 4. This IS a double top of sorts. The Mch/00-Jul/02 move was 779pts. From Oct/02 to our 1576 is 790 pts. How many times from 1966-1982 did the DIA fail at 10,000? Plus how many times can the market rally Q4? It's already 17 out of the past 19. I see a replication of a 10/97 or 1998 move. The July-Aug fractal just wasn't a big enough move down to fulfill the cycle. Flip an SPX chart upside down and look at the 02/03 lows. That's our 2007 highs. We are possibly going to break as hard as we broke in summer of 2002. 1245ish.
I hear ya brotha... ...I'm just saying that there's too much vested interest these days to let the market get whacked by 25%. Not that it doesn't deserve to be....It just won't be.
Seem's to be the case. I can't rationally build a case for Crash vs. Bernanke/GS. I'll tell ya this. Rates at zero wouldn't save housing.