S 5 SEPT ZB at 108.30, rolled 15 Junes into Sept -1. I'm now short 20 ZBU7. L 10 CN short 10 July 4.00 calls and long 5 July Cotton.
I don't think we are going to know the answer until there is a sudden is move in some currencies around the world. Right now the price keeping operations are in full force. It won't be until one of the major players gets overwhelmed and has to break rank. There is some evidence that the gulf is having problems with pegs, but maybe china will just make up the difference.
Purely technical. I follow some patterns that work in fx and debt. I don't see more than a shallow-drop if we see a strong non-farm.
The yen has stopped dropping on index rallies. The minor carry pairs have rolled over as well[GBPCHF, EURCHF]. I think we'll soon witness 3 sigmas lower on some of these pairs.
S 5 ZBU 108.19 S 20. I'll p/l those June's I rolled. I'm still long Corn and cotton but they've taken a backseat to my bonds which I consider the best trading opportunity the past couple of years. There's STILL money to be made as a seller of Treasury securities. This move will be MASSIVE. People are failing to think outside the box. Bond bulls keep waiting for a financial crisis that will bring in a flight to quality bid. As if 4.75% Treasury yields are so freakin' sacrosanct that they can't be budged. The weakness in government bonds i.e. T-Bond, Bund and Gilt will be the catalyst of derivative dislocation not the sanctuary of safety. Too few understand the true degree of how these bubbles surrounding us are the product of cheap money! It's over guys. And asset weakness is soon to follow. Stay tuned......
Just an additional comment. One need not be Walter Winchell to know Central Bank's are being held to the fire by liberal politicians. Democrat's in Congress are going to shit on Bernanke if he raises rates again. The BOJ was basically told by Koji Omi "you'll get one hike and one hike only." Investor's in Government securities freak out when they hear dovish inflation talk from politicians who vote on the appointments of Central Bank policy makers. Hence the Democrat's de facto influence the Fed. Some of the most "far out there" scenarios involving collapsing debt markets, currency crisis and surge in gold prices could be upon us. Real 1970's type stuff. Stock's are not going to like it one bit.
Not that anyone is reading but I guess if I don't give p/l info the journal is useless. I really don't like talking about $ but my June bond p/l was +$34,500 on the stuff I rolled last Thursday. Hence my Sept's start out with a "new" basis of 108.30 I'll cover if that area is tested.
congrats. looks like less trading/scalping finally works even for you It is all about patience (at the right time of course ) - I was extremely unlucky on this one - after over 1 year short in tsy I decreased my pos to be able to enjoy holiday - and when I came back I just watched the action fly by...fortunately I was not completely flat good luck in June
At the end of the day it's almost ALL luck. Only fools or newbies will deny that. It's all about having the bet down those too few times when you can really nail one. It's ironic but you were probably slowing down after a good year while I was FORCED pedal to the metal year end because of some wayward index shorts. I threw a dart and hit Corn and Bonds. In 1989, 1995 and 2003 I took on huge short positions in various debt derivatives and lost much of what I had. So as I've shown, even a broken clock......