Ah crap. I was so tempted to buy like 10 Cotton down at 49.14. This trade has great potential. CT might be a sleeper.
I haven't traded much the past week. I sold a bond last Thursday at 109.06 so I could bring my total to S 15 ZB. Obviously I'm up decent money on this trade (20k) but I know that can go up in smoke on any strong rally. I plan on making 250k in Bonds. Bank on it. My beans were called away from me in 2 "chunks" on Thursday and Friday. My profits on those beans were a tad over $13,000. I got back what I lost in Beans on the way down and then some. I'm still long 5 CTN7 and 10 CN7 against S 10 CN7 4.00 calls. I'll sit with those.
Supposing that you will add just a little more on the way down, your target on ZB should be not less than 98-00...is this your scenario? :eek:
I'll add another 5 on virtually any meaningful uptick. I should really sell 50 right here and now and if they trade 111-112 just ditch my career.
For the first time in a while Risk I'm concerned about sentiment becoming a bit too bearish. The weekly Lehman Bros survey released this morning shows only 20% of those polled think 10yr yields have "peaked." If stocks do indeed roll over here it's likely that 5% "free parking" will induce buying. I'm looking at options as a way to cut the baby in half. Unfortunately selling puts offers little protection against a 2pt rally in futures. Alternatively I could cover my futures and use the proceeds to buy puts. Premiums are so cheap even a modest break offers lotto type returns. IMO, the best sale in fixed income is the short end. I remain dubious that 1500 SPX and persistent inflation are the catalysts for multiple rate cuts. Then again that 1500 SPX can become 1350 awfully quick......
Curious about your reasons. Hunch? (is there really anything more to trading than that) You've had decent counter trend calls before. Several on this forum. Can you describe your feelings about Bonds?